Exceptions that disprove the AGW 'rule'

The current level of the GAT contradicts AGW because it is too low and AGW theory assumes the "missing heat" is being stored in the oceans. Knox and Douglass show this assumption is unfounded.

Knox and Douglass show the connection between the ocean radiative rate of change [Fohc] and the radiative rate of change at the top of the atmosphere [Ftoa]. Based on empirical evidence they prove that the Fohc has been negative, which means more radiative energy has been leaving the ocean than being stored.

Knox & Douglass conclude that because "90% of the variable heat content resides in the upper ocean" the Fohc can accurately infer the Ftoa. Therefore if Fohc is negative then Ftoa is as well; this has been confirmed by Lindzen and Choi's work. A negative Ftoa is contrary to AGW's assumption of "missing heat" being stored in the oceans. Without missing heat AGW has greatly overestimated the effect of global warming.

4 Miskolczi

Miskolczi 2007 and 2010 measure "the true greenhouse-gas optical thickness" [Abstract, Miskolczi 2010]. This is made up of two parts which are depicted in 2010, Figure 4.

a. τ_A -- is defined as "the total IR flux optical depth" [page 5 Miskolczi 2007]. This is a measure of the total amount of infra-red or long-wave radiation which is absorbed between the surface and the top of the atmosphere.

b. A -- is the flux absorbance [page 3 Miskolczi 2010] and is a measure of what wavelengths of long-wave radiation are being absorbed and transmitted in the atmosphere by 11 greenhouse gases [page 7, Miskolczi 2004].

Together τ_A and A are the optical depth of the atmosphere The optical depth is a kind of proxy measure of the greenhouse effect. Global warming says that more CO₂ will increase the optical depth. Miskolczi showed that available empirical measurements of the optical depth are consistent with no change in 61 years. This means that even though CO₂ has increased over the 61 years of measurement and increased the optical depth slightly, "variations in water vapor column amounts" [Figure 11, Miskolczi 2010] have decreased the optical depth by a similar amount. Paltridge et al. have confirmed a decrease in water vapor for this period.

If the optical depth has not increased overall, it suggests the slight warming of the 20^th C has not been due to an increase in the greenhouse effect.

5 McShane and Wyner 2011.

McShane and Wyner attempted to replicate Michael Mann's infamous hockeystick using Mann's own data. The hockeystick first appeared in Mann's 1998 paper and has been a centre-piece of global warming evidence ever since. The hockeystick is important because it supposedly shows recent warming is exceptional and "unprecedented". The hockeystick is based on dendro-climatic proxies or tree-rings which supposedly provide evidence for past temperatures. Mann's hockeystick shows basically flat temperature until the 20^th C and then a sudden and rapid increase.

Mann's data was highly problematic. Mann had used the wrong type of tree, and at times, hardly any samples. Some of the tree-ring records even show the opposite "temperature" trend to what thermometers show suggesting those trees don't make a good or accurate alternative to thermometers.