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A global warming primer

By Cliff Ollier - posted Monday, 10 September 2012

The whole Climate Alarm is based on the assertions that:

  1. The world is getting warmer
  2. The global warming is caused by human-produced CO2 (AGW).

All the rest – rising sea level, melting ice sheets, drowning polar bears, and hundreds more - are additional alarms based on the assumption of global warming.



Warming has ceased!

In a press release of April 2, 2012, it was announced that:

New UK Met Office global temperature data show that there has been no global warming in the past 15 years - a timescale that challenges current models of global warming. The graph shows the global annual average temperature since 1997. No statistically significant trend can be discerned from the data. The only statistically acceptable conclusion to be drawn from the data is that between 1997 and 2011 temperature has remained constant, with a global temperature of 14.44 +/- 0.16 deg C (2 standard deviations.)

Land based data are somewhat unreliable, but the hottest recent year was 1998. 1936 was the warmest year of the twentieth century. In fact the temperature varies regularly. The Earth's warming from 1915 to 1940 was just about as strong as the "scary" 1975 to 1998 warming in both scope and duration-and occurred too early to be blamed on human-emitted CO2. The cooling from 1940 to 1975 defied the Greenhouse Theory, occurring during the first big surge of man-made greenhouse emissions.

Satellite data show global temperature is essentially unchanged in 30 years.

Sea ice shows no change in 30 years, though every annual retreat is heralded by alarmists as proof of AGW.


Ocean temperatures are more important than land temperatures because the ocean holds much more heat than the atmosphere. Since 2004 the Argo observation system of 3000 buoys has been measuring the sea temperature. The machines go down as far as two kilometres and surface every ten days to send out their data, which shows a cooling trend.

Because we have data to great depths we know there is nowhere for the heat to be hiding.

The greenhouse warming hypothesis requires a rise in temperature. The observed cooling trend show it is not happening, so the hypothesis should be rejected.

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This article was adapted from a presentation that Cliff Ollier gave in Poznan, Poland  earlier this year.

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About the Author

Emeritus Professor Cliff Ollier is a geologist and geomorphologists. He is the author of ten books and over 300 scientific papers. He has worked in many universities including ANU and Oxford, and has lectured at over 100 different universities.

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Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.

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