The old shall inherit the earth

In Australia, the numbers of people aged over 80 may well reach more than 1 million by 2050. What sort of Australia will it be with more than 8 million aged over 65 and 1 million over 80? Will our social security system be able to cope? Will we need a new approach to age-care and housing? Will we have to consider major immigration programs to main a viable and ‘healthy’ labour force? Where will recruits for the armed forces come from? There are many questions that will require answers.

We also live in a world in motion. More people are on the move than ever before. Perhaps as many as 1 billion of the world’s population have left their place of birth and settled elsewhere. The vast majority have moved within the own country usually from rural areas to towns and cities.

China, in particular is witnessing the greatest rural-urban migration the world has seen, with more than 250 million having made the journey over the last few years. In addition, approximately 200 million of the world’s inhabitants have elected to leave their own country and settle elsewhere, usually in pursuit of employment or a better life. Such population movements have transformed the social, economic and demographic structure many societies, on the one hand depleting home countries of many young skilled and unskilled labour workers, while at the same time significantly altering the socio-demographic structure of the countries they have moved to.

Finally, what do these demographic changes mean for the security of key resources such as food and water? There seems little doubt that a growing population means increasing demand and competition for food and water resources. This pressure is compounded by the increasing loss of arable land through desertification and urbanisation, overfishing of the seas, and pollution of freshwater reserves. Climate change will also play a role with variable rainfall and drought destroying crops, and rising sea levels contaminating freshwater aquifers. Countries facing food shortages must rely on imports from surplus producers – a volatile market subject to steep price rises, or like China they may be forced to lease or purchase land overseas on which to grow crops for the home market.

So what does our future hold? Well, in many ways we look like inheriting an urban world, with fewer children, lots of old people, declining workforces, more migration and in some cases, declining populations. It will also be a world where food and water resource considerations loom large and where the population pendulum will have swung sharply towards Africa and the developing world. All in all, it will be something of a challenge.