Africa: looking beyond statistics

3. One of the most historically peaceful countries in Africa, Kenya, almost descended into anarchy in 2007 following disputed election results. That major conflict attracted a lot of attention and resources to resolve it. Now, in that same country, a secessionist movement called the Mombasa Republican Council (MRC) has arisen and is already a subject of concern because they have expressed a willingness to resort to violent, terroristic and sabotage tactics if need be. The Coast Province of Kenya that this separatist group seeks to destabilise possesses the seaport that serves most of Eastern Africa including the landlocked Uganda, South Sudan and Ethiopia.

4. Sudan, the largest country in Africa before July 9 2011 and a rising economic star between 2005 and 2010, broke in two and the two residual entities are currently just managing to survive as sovereign states. Furthermore, the conflict between the resultant states, Sudan and South Sudan, is considered a threat to world peace by the UN Security Council and the African Union, not least because Uganda says it will not sit idly and watch South Sudanese be blitzed by a Sudanese firepower they can match.

5. Nigeria almost returned to civil war in 2011 in a post-election violence that closely followed the contours of the Biafran war of secession. The problem in Nigeria, as is the case in Kenya, is that "ethnic" or "sectarian" loyalties are so elevated in national debate that legitimate attachments to the country are undermined. In other words, patriotism ceases to be a personal conviction and becomes a question of what involvement in national issues means for the group from which participants come.

6. Ivory descended into complete disorder despite strenuous efforts by the United Nations and the African Union to immediately bring peace.

7. Somalia continues to be a burden on Kenya and Ethiopia. It is unclear how its terrorist groups will affect security in the Horn of Africa in the years to come.

8. The democratic Republic of Congo is still ungovernable. Its conflicts have killed over 5.4 million people, a figure not seen elsewhere since the Second World War.

Last word: African countries cannot forge progress without peace. If Africans continue in the wretched anarchical state of affairs that Robert D Kaplan described in his 1994 essay, "The Coming Anarchy" – the same problems we see today – then future investors will not accept any formal or verbal assurances of security and respect for property. This is the point were politics meets economics. And since politics of African countries remain in need of fundamental paradigm shifts, I will remain sceptical about the future trajectory of African economic growth.