Wet dreaming

Astelle went on. "As far as I know no one has done a study of downstream economic losses. For instance even if the erosion loss is one meter on either bank, we have to multiply that by the thousand odd kilometers of river length. The loss is not evenly spread. Some countries like Vietnam will be disproportionately effected by salinity. Will they demand the Lao government pay compensation?"

Shady Politics

The vast menu of environmental issues raised by this dam have converted the normally polite and paternalistic cross boundary politics into saber thrusts of approbation. Vietnam and Cambodia have been strongly opposed to the dam, fearing severe downstream consequences, while entertaining their own dam futures.

And What of Climate Change?

Vilakhorn Khomtavong an Australian based water engineer wrote: "I don't think that the dams in Laos are built and operated scientifically. They see $$$!! (sic) and they go for it. They predict the dams to operate at its maximum level, (but) this cannot be done when they have limited data. The data they have are only a few years and they are not run-off data, but just rainfall data. Australia has 50-100 yrs of rainfall and some 50 yrs plus run-off data, and even they cannot get the flow rate accurate and they can't factor in climate change."

"Lao dams are built using the BOT method (Build Operate Transfer) The designer, who is part of the BOT scheme, upload their fees and make their money upfront. Anything after that is the cream for them. "

Being in breach of gazetted legal obligations is likely to expose Lao PDR to liability for damages to lower riparian countries resulting from the dam.

The Company you keep.

Around a major dam outside of Vientiane, the local residents are said to be selling up and moving, fearing cracks in the dam wall will worsen. The dam was built by Ch. Karnchang. If Karchanghas issues with quality control, it's vitally important they fix them, as Sayaboury has experienced significant earth tremors in the last 12 months. In the Thai resort area of Rayong, three damaged reservoirs built on private golf course owned by Ch Karnchang, broke and flooded three villages in the area. A Buddhist nun almost drowned. Very bad karma indeed.

There are many questions about the probity of the principle contractors. Karnchang's biggest share holder is an anonymous company called Mahasiri Siam who own 21.71%. Attempts to investigate Mahasiri Siam are meet with blank screens; and who owns a mystery 50.02% of shares in electricity company EGCO? And does withholding this information from public scrutiny breach the Stock Exchange of Thailand's own regulations?

Climate Bottom Lines

Contrary to some claims, hydro dams are not carbon neutral and while hydro-power can, with due diligence, be cleaner than other energy sources, there is evidence that this dam's construction site is encroaching on primary forest and of course the construction work itself is carbon intensive. It might be time to take a deep breath and consider if energy conservation might be a more considered path to energy proliferation, particularly in light of the electricity surplus.. The Portland and Mae Fah Luang University report suggests the need "to move beyond linear thinking to a more comprehensive basin wide .. approach" and further that Mekong nations could focus more on alternative renewable energy sources and place more emphasis on a well-being approach than standard economic growth being the focus. They then suggest that the governments responsible for dam development; in this case Laos, should be responsible for paying other nations for the loss of ecosystem services. By calculating those service costs to the Mekong Basin they converted a USD33 billion profit for all dams to a USD 274 billion debt. It is doubtful if Lao has been faced with these sobering economic realities.

Concern about the 40,000 Chinese dams currently needing rehabilitation or decommissioning should raise questions in Lao about the need for sinking funds for long term maintenance, and eventual destruction. The inability of the Lao Government to offer any logistic long term planning or contingency financing, offers grave concerns about the future of the Mekong, and the competence of the Lao government to do anything but realize short term profits.

Last Words

But the real politik comes from a highly connected Lao family who confided on the basis of strict confidentiality "He (Choummaly Sayasone, President of Lao PDR) gets big money (from Karnchang) He cannot pay it back as it (the money) is all spent. The dam will go ahead. He has a full time staff person whose job it is to convey his wishes to Cho Karnchang. If his daughter wants a laptop, it is there within days. The reason this will go ahead despite the opposition, is that the very top is getting the money."