2012 GOP Veepstakes Finals: Rubio vs. Portman… 'Exciting' vs 'Safe'

A little more than a year ago, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney announced what many already knew, that he was running for the GOP nomination for President in the 2012 election against President Barack Obama. Slightly more than a month ago, Mr. Romney did what many also already knew he would do… secure that nomination.

The last few months have provided certain clues, names, and rationales for the individuals who may be asked to join Mr. Romney on the ticket for the general election campaign this fall and there has been no shortage of people willing to give an opinion, myself included. We have now reached the point in the campaign where the VP pick will be made (privately, not yet publicly revealed) and I say this because the mistakes of the McCain campaign were unique to that campaign. There is no doubt that President Obama, President Bush, Senator Kerry and President Clinton all knew who they were going to choose several weeks before the public was made aware of the pick, and I am certain the Romney campaign will be no different.

The choice for Vice President, in my opinion, has always been between two dynamics and this time around that still holds true.

One dynamic is the “exciting pick” that tends to be more about style and generating buzz about a ticket, certainly that is what won out for the McCain team in 2008, and in all honesty they had no choice but to go for that excitement factor considering what they were up against (stylistically speaking).

The second dynamic in the Vice-Presidential paradox is the “safe pick” which is much more about the substance of the campaign and the credentials of the individual. This type of pick can be seen in many recent selections including the current Vice-President, Mr. Biden who was not only seen as a “safe” pick, but he was also someone who “balanced” the ticket for then-Senator Obama in many ways including age, experience, policy expertise, and middle-class appeal. Mr. Romney is now in the position where he must decide what type of dynamic will work best for his candidacy?

Within the two dynamics, there are a number of individuals who fit the criteria in more ways than one, and that is where we started when I began the Veepstakes Brackets months ago. The 32 initial contenders were a mix of many but in the end I could classify them all as being part of one of the two dynamics. “Exciting” choices like Condoleezza Rice and Gov Chris Christie were eliminated just as were “Safe” choices like Sen Jon Kyl and Gov Mitch Daniels. That being said, the final two contenders undoubtedly represent the truest forms of the “exciting” vs “safe” dynamic.

The case for Marco Rubio falls into line with those who feel Mr. Romney needs to make an “exciting” choice in order to increase his chances at winning the election. Senator Rubio would add an instant jolt into the Presidential campaign and many in the conservative base would be absolutely ecstatic with his selection to be on the ticket. Senator Rubio would provide an initial boost in polling for the Romney campaign both nationally and in specific swing states including NV, CO, and his home state (and mine) of FL and no state may be more important to Romney than the “Sunshine State.”

Those who are endorsing Rubio for the VP nod are also looking at it from a demographic standpoint with the belief that placing Rubio on the ticket may provide Mr. Romney the opportunity to chip away at President Obama’s heavy advantage with Hispanic voters, an advantage of more than 40% as it stands now. Mr. Rubio, 41, is also seen as someone who could reach out to younger voters, another demographic where Mr. Romney is well behind the President.

Certainly the fact that he is Catholic has to be seen as something of an advantage when weighing him for VP, considering the recent infringements upon the Catholic Church that Obama Administration has engaged in related to ObamaCare. Finally, the optimism that Senator Rubio exudes when discussing his life story on the trail is an assett that many believe can help the Romney campaign in their efforts to identify with voters from states all across the country. Nobody can deny the uplifting story that Senator Rubio brings to the table, and it is something that can appeal to voters from all backgrounds.

The case for Rob Portman rings true with those going for the “safe” choice. Senator Portman of Ohio is safe in almost every way, his bland and boring background practically screams conventional. Picking Portman would be all about the credentials, with just a hint of electoral map strategy. Senator Portman is one of the most qualified individuals in consideration for the VP, and he has been since the start. He was a former congressman and now a first term Senator hailing from the crucial swing state of Ohio… no Republican has ever won the Presidency without winning Ohio.

In between his time representing Ohio, he was a member of the Bush Administration in two different roles, and for both he was confirmed by the U. S. Senate. He was United States Trade Representative overseeing economic issues, which directly impacted how the United States does business both domestically and internationally. He was also confirmed to the OMB (Office of Management & Budget) Director for the Bush White House, where he was able to burnish his credentials on fiscal policy even further. Senator Portman’s credentials bring to light the first rule that many see as essential when choosing a Vice President, that rule is to pick someone who will be ready to be President on Day One.

The pick for VP is the first major decision a nominee makes and when choosing someone for the number two spot, it will convey a message to voters on what you want from a Vice President. Senator Portman also brings almost no liability in the fact that he has been vetted already… twice. The Senate confirmed him for cabinet positions less than ten years ago, and had there been something in his past the Democrats in the Senate would have made sure to make it public. Finally, Portman reinforces exactly what the Romney candidacy is about... the economy.

The two Senators both have compelling cases as to why they should have the edge in the Veepstakes, but in the end Romney can’t pick them both and there is no candidate who is the “perfect mix” of the two… otherwise that’s who I’d be writing about now. How does one decide between the two? Well in all honesty any individual can make the argument in any fashion they choose, but the way that I have come to my decision is to lay out exactly what one brings to the table over the other… and the risk that one carries over the other. In nearly all aspects, the advantage lies with the same Senator.

Experience Factor

Senator Portman has experience at the federal level that spans more than a decade and carries in both the US Capitol and the White House. Senator Rubio is in his first statewide held office and has zero experience in a White-House capacity.

Senator Portman is experienced in issues on the economy and jobs that go back to his days as a congressman from Ohio all the way through his years in the Bush Administration as Trade Rep and OMB Director. Senator Rubio’s experience and actions in the U. S. Senate thus far seem to suggest an emphasis for other important issues such as Foreign Policy and Immigrationn policy.

Risk Factor

Senator Portman has been vetted twice before by the US Senate, and there is nothing in his background of concern. Senator Rubio has not been vetted at this point and there are things in his political past that may give pause to the Romney campaign as we near a decision for VP.

Senator Portman can face not a single question about his preparedness to be President of the United States should something unforeseen take place if Mr. Romney is elected. Senator Rubio has not yet made the case that he is prepared to assume the Presidency if such a need occurred.

Senator Portman’s real risk lies in his ties with the Bush Administration and while many have said this may be what will doom his chances, I take an entirely different approach to this argument. No matter whom Mr. Romney chooses, the Obama campaign is going to try (as they already have) to tie the Romney ticket to Bush. So Portman or no Portman, the “Romney is Bush” message will be a part of the Obama strategy and it is highly likely that voters who would buy such an argument… have already made their decision anyway.

Electoral Strategy

Senator Rubio doesn’t guarantee Florida, but he certainly increases the chances that Mr. Romney will be able to flip the state back to the GOP column after President Obama won there in 2008. Senator Rubio also may help to put other states in play just enough to flip them to the GOP as well; those being Nevada and Colorado.

Senator Portman may certainly help Mr. Romney in flipping the state of Ohio considering in his 2010 Senate victory he carried 82 of the 88 counties in the Buckeye State. He also helps in that he can have an appeal to neighboring Midwest states that will be in play including Iowa, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania… which all went for President Obama in 2008.

The Messagee

Senator Rubio would send the message that Mr. Romney feels the most important aspect to winning would be to excite the base while making a slight demographic play.

Senator Portman would serve to reinforce Romney’s economic message and make nearly the entire focus of the 2012 election campaign about the economy.

The Choice

The 2012 election has been waged for nearly three years now, as potential candidates spent months raising money, raising their profiles, debating each other, and then ultimately competing in Primaries. There have been two constants through this entire process: One, Mitt Romney and how he methodically was able to capture the GOP nomination with very limited mistakes. Two, the Economy continuing to be the most important issue on the minds of voters… on all sides. Mr. Romney has succeeded because he has been able to convince enough voters (and donors) that he is the candidate who has the ability, experience, and competence to run an aggressive campaign against President Obama, and one that would have the best chance to win.

No matter what you may think of Mr. Romney in terms of his views, his political skills and that of his campaign have been extremely impressive thus far. Though some mistakes have been made, they have pounced at nearly every opportunity when it has come to taking on President Obama on his major weakness, the state of economy. Mr. Romney has also been an adept fundraiser and ensured that the coordination between his campaign and the institutional counterpart (the RNC) will be close, match, or excel in terms of money raised against President Obama. Finally, the campaign has been very disciplined to stay focused on the most important issue in this election, which is the overall state of the US Economy and President Obama’s leadership as it relates to the it and the decisions he has made in his first term. This despite the attempts by the Obama Administration and their allies to try and change the subject and shift the focus to choose your issue of the week (gay marriage, immigration, war on women, contraception, Bain Capital, Osama Bin Laden, etc.).

In the final analysis, it would be almost shocking to think that Mr. Romney would do anything to change the focus of this election, and that goes not only for issues… but also for individuals. In 2008 Senator McCain needed to change the dynamic so that then-Senator Obama wasn’t the sole focus of media and voters in the final months of that campaign, and on that battle the Senator succeeded with his selection of Gov. Palin. Fast-forward to 2012 and this election… Mr. Romney wants, and really needs the focus to be on President Obama as a referendum on his first term. A pick that runs the risk of possibly overshadowing the President may be exactly what the Obama campaign wants.

Based on experience, preparedness, electoral strategy, risk factor, and messaging… Mr. Romney will, and should choose Senator Rob Portman of Ohio to be his Vice Presidential running mate on the 2012 GOP ticket.