The power and the glory: Australia’s politicians face an upheaval

Incidentally, Bob Brown’s departure was handled very well by the Greens - no hint of a Rudd assassination scenario. But, let us be very clear - the hard Left wanted him out and they won the day. Bob Brown responded with genuine grace and, despite the way in which he has been subjected to constant vilification from a majority of Australians throughout his parliamentary career, he is a political moderate and also a gentleman who has a lifelong commitment to the defense of the environment. I got on well with him and admired his fortitude, even though I often disagreed with him. He lived by his convictions, and there are too few parliamentarians who do likewise.

Will the Greens remain a major political force in Australia for years to come? Yes.

Will they ever gain power in their own right? No.

Bob Katter did far better than I expected in the Queensland elections because he got votes from disenchanted ALP voters who wanted to change the government - but couldn’t bring themselves to vote for the LNP. I think that most of those voters will cast their ballots with Christine Milne in a Federal election, as she is politically aligned more closely with them.

In addition, I don’t think that Bob Katter can get the organisational support on the ground in the other States in anywhere near the same manner as he did in his home state of Queensland. I reckon that Bob will run for a Senate seat in Queensland in 2013, instead of trying to hold his House of Representatives seat of Kennedy. He should get enough votes to win, and this could give him a pivotal role in a balance of power situation in the Senate in competition with the Greens and Nick Xenophon, whom I think will hold his seat in South Australia.

The Katter Australian Party will not have a permanent place in the Australian political scene. When Bob leaves the scene, they will die.

Tony Windsor will be the only Independent to retain his seat at the next election. The Coalition has said that they will pour unlimited funds into a campaign to unseat him in New England, but they will waste their money - even if they run a formidable candidate like Barnaby Joyce.

However, the next parliament is unlikely to be ‘hung’, and so it will be some time before Independents can exercise again the influence that they now have.

Nevertheless, they have generally exercised their power with commendable responsibility on this occasion, and the electorate will have less apprehension about them in the future.

The Nationals will pass into history over the next decade. For the past quarter of a century, they have, in reality, been just a country branch of the Liberals, and this has meant that the Liberals have been able to expand their country base by taking seats that the Nationals should have won. In addition, they are generally vulnerable to good Independents such as Tony Windsor.

The merger of the Libs and Nats in Queensland to form the LNP led to an astonishing victory in the State election, proving conclusively that it no longer makes any sense to have two Conservative parties. If they continue separately, the Greens and the Independents and the Liberals will gradually shrink the Nationals vote to insignificance. The situation where the leader of the Nationals becomes Deputy Prime Minister when the Coalition wins Government will become a farce which will not be tolerated by a majority of the Liberal caucus.