Live by Big Brother, die by Big Brother

There is a clear gender theme in the results. Men go for Rudd, women for Gillard. Geography counts too, with Queensland the only state supporting Rudd.

Rudd's support is strongest amongst younger, males, living in Queensland which goes some way to explaining the flash mob that materialised around Rudd yesterday in Brisbane's Queen Street mall.

This wasn't how things lined-up in 2010 when Rudd was deposed.

At that stage he was behind Abbott with men and his strength was the female vote.

It's likely that if he were reinstated as leader that dynamic would return, and that would be bad for Labor's electoral prospects.

In the Big Brother house it is generally not the superstar who survives, but the knockabout person who can get on with everyone and causes least offence.

Elections in Australia are about winning the blue collar conservative vote, and Rudd turns that group off, particularly the men. They had to put up with guys like him at school, so they're not keen to vote them in as PM. They know that a man who refers to the Prime Minister as a "bogan" will even more easily look down on them.

Elections also tend to be about winning big in Queensland with Labor in 1983 and Liberals in 1996 being good illustrations of the principle.

Again, while these results look good for Rudd from a Queensland point of view, back in 2010 his home state and New South Wales were the two states that were turning against him. Why would it be different this time?

The fact that only two of his Queensland state colleagues are likely to vote for him today says it wouldn't.

There is one opportunity for Rudd in all of this. He has an extraordinarily clear lead over Gillard amongst those voters who are undecided. Seven percent of our sample was in this category and of this almost half (46%) voted Labor at the last election.

As the last election was a draw, these erstwhile Labor voters might determine the outcome of the next.