How travel broadens the mind

The range of temperature predictions for the present and the future has generated what Paltridge described as "a highly satisfying spread of the forecasts of the likely rise in the Earth's temperature over the next hundred years. Some were as high as six or seven degrees." The spread is satisfying because it has been possible over the years to put more and more emphasis on the higher numbers and ramp up the hype about the dangers of warming, based on "sophisticated scientific predictions" but without convincing contemporary evidence.

Garnaut's use of climate models to inform Australian climate policy is a good example of this process. Recall the spread of values in predicted Australian rainfall, with an average increase of about 8 mm per annum. According to Paltridge the CSIRO model used by Garnaut predicted 100 mm per annum less rainfall. In scientific terms that model is the outlier that would probably be rejected by rigorous scientists, but it is the basis of the argument for our CO2 tax.

The Australian Academy of Science convened a group of experts to review the Garnaut report in draft. The people in the group who understood the pitfalls of models wanted to include a strong statement to warn Garnaut and everyone else who might be interested but the Academy decided that this was not a good idea. Instead they organized a meeting with Garnaut in person, without all the troublemakers present, so the report could sail on its way without ruffling any political feathers.

A summary of main arguments in The Climate Caper can be found here. 

Later in the year I took a plane to Hobart. I don't usually buy reading matter in airports (call me a snob) but a book by Matt Ridley, The Rational Optimist, caught my eye and this completed my journey from agnosticism, through scepticism (relaxed acceptance of mild warming), to positively welcoming warming! Ridley shows that when you check out the mass of working papers submitted to the IPCC to find some information that has been screened out by the political process of writing the reports, we can be a great deal more relaxed about the future. The scare stories about the risks of warming are mostly based on reports from activists, the benefits of mild warming barely get a mention, and in the balance the positives from mild warming and additional CO2 (plant food) outweigh the costs. Donna Laframboise's book The Delinquent Teenager Who was Mistaken for the World's Top Climate Expert looks like the definitive account of the internal procedures in the IPCC which have undermined its scientific credibility.

Whatever the downsides of warming may be (noting that there is no certainty about warming anyway) they are best met by specific mitigation and adjustment strategies as the need becomes apparent. More of these thoughts can be found in my previous OLO piece on Welcoming Warming. 

As for the mitigation and adjustment strategies that are required, we can depend on the energy and initiative of entrepreneurs and innovators in the private sector who have historically led the way in converting scientific knowledge into practical applications. Often enough they led the way in scientific research as well, judging from the historical account provided by Terrence Kealy in his book on The Economic Laws of Scientific Research. That is another story, but there is a summary of his book for interested people.