Avoiding strategic miscalculations

The readers of the Bangkok Post received on December 4 this year an intellectual "gift" from Malcolm Fraser, a former prime minister of Australia, who published in this Thai daily an article entitled "Equal playing field."

It contains a lucid and realistic analysis of major current events in the Asia-Pacific, a region in which many strategic miscalculations have been committed in previous and current centuries. Therefore, time is ripe to use the vast reservoir of diplomatic skills to radically improve the substance of multilateral cooperation in this area.

From this perspective, the vibrant article "Equal playing field," deserves utmost attention. Indeed, Malcolm Fraser's final conclusion has great significance: "Asia today presents a completely new and unique set of circumstances. The dilemmas arising from these circumstances demand new solutions, not obsolete Cold War-era concepts." This suggestive conclusion fully corresponds to the current geopolitical environment, which requires fresh answers to fundamental questions of vital interest for all countries of the Asia-Pacific area.

Malcolm Fraser's article is in harmony with his general vision expressed earlier about establishing a better world by involving two different but complementary processes. The first would be the development of a law-based system of international relations, step by step, falteringly, but nevertheless moving steadily forward. The second process would be illustrated by adequate diplomacy and communication, without which, neither a law-based system nor peace can be maintained.

In this respect, there is a recent promising answer offered by the heads of state/governments of the participating countries of the sixth East Asia Summit (EAS) on November 19,2011 in Bali, Indonesia. The EAS is a diplomatic forum held annually by leaders of 18 countries.

The USA and the Russian Federation took part for the first time in the sixth EAS, which in its enlarged composition. is expected to further strengthen EAS efforts to advance its common endeavours. The enlargement came at the right time, because, as pointed out during the Summit itself, the East Asia region continues to face challenges that are multifaceted, multidimensional and interlinked. And consequently, they require collective resolve to address them. Thus, multilateral diplomacy is called upon to demonstrate its capacity to find creative solutions to the numerous problems generated by these complex challenges

In an important diplomatic document entitled ''Declaration of the 6th EAS on the Principles for Mutually Beneficial Relations,'' dated November 19, 2011, the 10 members of Asean, as well as Australia, China, India, Japan, Korea, New Zealand, Russia and the USA reiterated their commitment to the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations (UN), the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia and other recognized principles of international law.

It is encouraging to note that in the same document all 18 EAS participating countries declared themselves willing to create a peaceful environment to further enhance cooperation and strengthen the existing bonds of friendship among them. In keeping with the principles of equality, partnership, consultation, and mutual respect, all will contribute to peace, stability and prosperity in the region and the world at large.

Moreover, they declared that they are guided in their relations by a number of clear principles of public international law. The principles enumerated in the Declaration include inter alia the following:

1. Enhancement of mutual respect for independence, sovereignty, equality, territorial integrity and national identity;

2. Promotion of good neighbourliness, partnership and community building;

3. Promotion and maintenance of peace, stability, security and prosperity;

4. Non-interference in the internal affairs of another country;

5. Recognition and respect for the diversity of ethnic, religious, cultural traditions and values, as well as diversity of views and positions, including by promoting the voices of moderation;

6. Enhancement of regional resilience, including in the face of economic shocks and natural disasters;

7. Respect for fundamental freedoms, the promotion and protection of human rights, and of social justice;

8. Renunciation of the threat of use of force or use of force against another state; and

9. Settlement of differences and disputes by peaceful means.

All these principles are contained in a document called "Declaration," which is not a treaty corresponding to the criteria codified in the 1969 Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, but by their very nature they belong to the important body of generally recognised fundamental principles of public international law. A number of them are also present in the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia (1976), which is a legally binding international legal instrument.

Daniel Patrick O'Connell (1924-1979) from the University of Adelaide, who was one of my professors in the Graduate Institute of International Studies of Geneva University, used to focus the attention of his students on the idea that positive international law is not pure whim, but an expression of needs and convictions, as it aims at security and stability of the world community of nations.

The primary end of the interpretation process in the case of diplomatic documents must be to give effect to the intentions of parties, not to frustrate them and to really ascertain the logic inherent in the provisions of those documents. According to his approach, every legal principle has a reason grounded in history and is shaped by juridical, political and practical considerations.

He always used to emphasize that international law should respond gradually to changing needs and circumstances of humankind. Full respect for law is the best way to avoid political, diplomatic and military miscalculations. In this regard, fundamental principles are useful threads in the labyrinth of current contradictory situations.

For the topicality and significance of professor O'Connell's visionary conception about the principle of peaceful settlement of disputes - clearly reflected in the EAS Declaration of November 19, 2011 - I will cite one example.

Australia's successful action against France in the International Court of Justice in 1973, over atmospheric nuclear testing in the South Pacific, was based on O'Connell's sound legal advice. He had the merit of identifying a convincing way to base jurisdiction on the insufficiently known provisions of the General Act for the Pacific Settlement of Disputes, concluded at Geneva in 1928, to which both Australia and France were signatories.

In the light of the advanced vision about the law of nations developed by professor O'Connell, it can be asserted that if the universal principles of public international law are strictly observed and given genuine tangibility in the relations between all the participating countries of the EAS, that this would be a valuable contribution to promoting lasting peace at the regional and global levels, during our era of perplexing vulnerabilities.

In addition, at the purely practical level, this approach is consonant with the very commitment of the EAS to promote greater engagement and cooperation in people-to-people connectivity initiatives, including those relating to education and life-long learning, human resource development, innovation and entrepreneurship, cultural exchanges and tourism.

The validity of optimistic expectations about the EAS can be illustrated by the specific assessment regarding this forum, formulated in September this year in the UN General Assembly, in an audience of 193 member states, by Kevin Rudd. In his view, in order to deal adequately with security challenges in Asia, there is a need for stronger regional institutional architecture, as a complement to the UN, to help build the transparency, cooperation and a sense of common security in the region.

The EAS brings together for the first time the right countries with the right mandate to address the full range of political, economic and security challenges facing this region. A stronger EAS can promote the type of rules-based order regionally for which the UN strives globally.

There is no doubt that accomplishing this task is crucial in order to avoid damaging strategic miscalculations in the Asia-Pacific region, which risk having dangerous consequences at the planetary level. A diplomatic compass solidly based on clear strategic vision, is highly needed to guide the EAS participating countries towards an exemplary pattern of multilateral cooperation, in full harmony with universal principles of international law.