Compromise and policy balance are shaping Gillard’s minority government

If most people are going to be better off, why did the poll produce this result? The problem is that nobody is supporting the policy – because nobody really got what they wanted. The Greens got a carbon tax, but it's not as strong as they'd like.

Environmentalists are struggling to see real benefit because too many high-polluting industries are exempt. Green voters in general are not supporting the tax because it does not yet achieve what the Greens sought. On the other hand, the Coalition never wanted a tax in the first place. What do they care about exemptions?

Gillard's compromise between Green, Labor, Liberal and independent positions is producing a situation where nobody is satisfied. To avoid adverse economic impact, Gillard has gone soft on the environmental goals of a carbon tax and focused on the economic issues.

The result is an even weaker environment policy and there are no political winners. Without support from either side, and without a consistent moral argument for the government about the environmental and generational benefits of a carbon reduction program, the public is susceptible to Abbot's claim that it is little more than a 'big new tax'. New agendas create confusion, and without a strong sell on the moral, generational or environmental benefits, the public will always fear the worst and focus on the word 'tax'.

Asylum seeker compromise

Labor's other headline problem – asylum seekers – is also suffering from compromise.

In 2007, Rudd promised to dismantle Howard's Pacific Solution. One of his first actions as Prime Minister was to stop sending asylum seekers to Nauru. Since then, the Rudd and Gillard governments have mostly fulfilled their promise of removing children from detention centres. Abbott's ongoing assertion that Labor cannot 'stop the boats' has however caused Labor to change its position.

Enter the Malaysian Solution – as close as Labor can come to Liberal policy without sending people back to Nauru. By adopting this policy, Gillard has had to compromise between Liberal-style deterrence and Labor-inspired social democratic and egalitarian values.

The clash is noticeable when the Government, particularly the Minister for Immigration Chris Bowen, is seeking to recognise 'the sovereignty of states in determining their own immigration policy' and expressing a desire for international cooperation.

Domestically, the Malaysian Solution is aimed at boat people, deciding in Howard-like fashion who comes into this country and the manner in which they do. Internationally, it is part of the regional cooperation framework advanced by Prime Minister Gillard. The rhetoric is along the line of 'tackling' people smuggling with 'cooperative arrangements', but the people affected are the asylum seekers themselves.

Even if the Malaysian Solution goes ahead, Gillard is caught between appeasing the Coalition and the Australian public, and appearing to be a good global citizen. Nothing that she says can lean too far to one side for the risk of alienating the other. Rather than selling one policy, Gillard is balancing two, while walking the tightrope of minority government.

The policies of the Gillard Government are not as bad as they are made out to be. The carbon tax takes a step to address climate change, but avoids damaging the economy. The Malaysian Solution was an attempt to stop the boats while engaging in a South-East Asian regional framework.

But through compromise, Gillard has left herself fighting both sides of each debate. The Liberals and the Greens have chosen their corners, each swiping away at the parts of the policies they don't agree with.

Labor stands in the middle holding each at bay.

None of the parties or the independents are really getting what they want. It seems it is just too hard to sell a minority government.