Reborn

It is also clear that she believes the over compensation she has promised key sections of the community such as the aged and lower income groups to offset rises in the cost of living particularly relating to power will be a valuable election weapon to be used against the Coalition once the carbon tax becomes law.

But the opinion polls which put Labor's primary vote well below 30 per cent suggest that the electorate is not going to buy this. In other words Gillard is not the only problem she is indicative, in the eyes of the electorate, of a bad government.

So, if there is to be a change of leadership when will this occur? One view by ALP power brokers is that it should happen after the Budget which is due in May. This would give the Government the opportunity to get some sort of economic strategy in place before the election-albeit one which may have to be massaged to lessen the pain on polling day. It would also come at a time when the Government has more flexibility in determining when to call the election.

May also coincides with the deadline which Tasmanian Independent Andrew Wilkie has set for Government legislative action on his campaign for a crackdown on poker machine gambling- a highly divisive issue in itself.

Whatever the case it seems inevitable that any change which involved Rudd would have to see Treasurer, Wayne Swan, depart with Gillard. Apart from anything else there is no love lost now between these two Queenslanders.

Some reports suggest that Defence Minister, Stephen Smith, could replace Swan and Smith would be regarded as a safe pair of hands. But Smith and Rudd fell out ages ago when Smith was Foreign Affairs Minister a portfolio claimed by the former Prime Minister after he was turfed out of the Lodge.

The counter argument to all of this is the destabilising effect of another leadership switch backed by the fact that changes at the top in NSW did not save Labor from an electoral thrashing.

The dilemma for Labor is that the Government is steaming Titanic- like towards an iceberg. Can changing the captain avoid disaster?

ENDS