Orientating the economically disorientated

Referring back to the OODA loop, it is clear that virtually all of the people involved in the key decision making processes around the world, with their world view orientated through the prism of economic growth, will as each crisis unfolds, make decisions that become increasingly inappropriate over time. This is amply demonstrated by the response to the GFC so far where the vast majority of responses have been focused on the tertiary economy, whilst the secondary and in particular, the primary economy have received next to nothing in the way of stimulus or investment.

At this momentous period in human history there is, with few exceptions, little to suggest that these decision makers have begun to reorientate their world view to one that aligns with the finite nature of our planet. Indeed, we are likely to see a generation or more of intellectual resistance to any change to the existing economic order, as always occurs when there is a paradigm shift. There is no doubt however that this resistance will be overcome, in time, as events continue to confound conventional responses to our current predicament.

In the meantime, and for the foreseeable future, we are highly likely to continue bumbling from one economic crisis to another until Planet Earth and Planet Finance regain some semblance of balance and our economic structures re-orientate themselves to the finite nature of the planet. Using Ferguson’s calculations as a rough basis, this period of rolling crises could well continue until the global tertiary economy approaches one seventh of its current level. Stop. Pause. And think of the implications of this for a minute or two!

For those whose future prosperity is currently invested in the tertiary economy the inevitable rebalancing of Planet Earth and Planet Finance is cause for grave concern as virtual wealth continues to evaporate. For governments this raises rather important questions on a myriad of issues, none of which appear to have even been considered, much less had appropriate policies developed for. For investors this future suggests an investment strategy based on the tangible goods and services of the primary and secondary economies. And finally, for all of us, reducing dependence on the tertiary (or money) economy is something that we can all do to reduce the impact of its decline.

Unlike the North Korean pilots who were ‘OODA looped’ by their opponents, fortunately we have no enemy attempting to destroy us. Other than our own hubris of course! The next few decades will no doubt be difficult, potentially very difficult, for many if not most people as the perceived wealth currently residing in the tertiary economy comes back down to earth. The degree of difficulty of the predicaments we face are however within our hands, it is simply a matter of re-orientating our world view through a prism that aligns with the finite nature of our planet. Greer’s three tiered model provides such a prism. Perhaps it is time that The Wealth of Nature replaced The Wealth of Nations as a new foundation for the dismal science.