Greener than spring it won’t get: The Green party in the German political landscape

For close to a decade, the city-state of Berlin, capital of Germany, has been run by a social democrat and leftist/communist coalition headed by the popular mayor Klaus Wowereit. His seat on the throne may be in danger however, as the Greens leading figure Renate Künast is viewed as a serious contester in the upcoming September elections.

Whether or not Künast really stands a chance of robbing Wowereit of his title remains to be seen. A Wowereit-led coalition with the Greens - already briefly attempted between June 2001 and January 2002 - looks more likely.

What counts much more is her role as whip in the campaign, slashing Die Linke (even if they deliver most of the blows themselves) and forcing former people's parties such as the social democrats (SPD), to spice up their act - or panic.

In 2009, the Greens were elected into the Saarland regional government, together with the Christian-Democrats CDU and the liberal FDP. In Bremen and Rheinland-Pfalz they have wormed themselves into SPD-led governments. In the densely populated and biggest state of Nordrhein-Westfalen, a coalition of SPD and Greens took over from the CDU last year.

Most spectacular however, was the victory of the Greens in Germany's economic powerhouse of Baden-Wurttemberg last March. There, the Greens not only pushed the forever ruling CDU/CSU into opposition, they also came out bigger than the SPD. With Winfried Kretchmann the Greens are now fronting their very first minister-president, right in Germany's industrial heart.

The Greens are presently in leading positions all over the country. Polls have them rake in approval of a fifth, to a quarter, of the German electorate now. Beyond having doubled their traditional statistical share of voter support, the Greens have widened their ideological reach.

Green leadership, in fact a foursome consisting of Trittin, Künast, Özdemir, and Roth, have managed to stitch the gaps between the so-called fundi (hard core leftist) and realo (pragmatist) factions within the party - at least outwardly.

The Greens message of a more open, social, authentic, respectful, forward looking and more sustainable society has appeal beyond the quintessential 'eco-warrior.' This is exemplified by the huge crowds that (still) gather to protest nuclear energy and nuclear transports, or in the case of the highly contested Stuttgart railway station extension, that has galvanized the public debate for months now.

Families, older people, the well off, the young and the alternative, seem to assemble under one common Green umbrella.

Since the eighties, and to this day, the central motif in the political discourse of the German Greens has been the rejection of all things nuclear. It is the issue that has given the party its face, its consistency and its political pitch.

Since the Fukushima disaster and debacle, that core issue has been crudely snatched away from them, with Chancellor Merkel's volte-face on atomic energy.

Only a few months after her decision to extend the operation times of Germany's nuclear power plants, the events in Japan made her federal government of Christian-Democrats and Liberals decree the all-out exit from nuclear energy by 2022 at the latest. While engaging in symbolic opposition, demanding the withdrawal by 2017 instead of 2022 for instance, rubber-stamping the project is all that was left for the Greens.

All agree Merkel's decision has very little to do with ecology and sustainability. Nonetheless she has managed to hijack the core concepts of the Green agenda.

The exit from nuclear energy entails the boosting of alternative energy sources, which in turn entails investment in and support for renewables, as well as innovative carbon capture and storage technologies. With one daring sweep, Merkel has reclaimed her stake on the ideological Leitmotiv of security, sustainability and growth.

Merkel is eyeing the next federal election in 2013, and wondering how best to stay on top of things. Her present coalition is in a dire state, with the liberals vanishing into insignificance and her own Christian-Democrat party slumping in the low thirties.

Some see her in the opening sequence of an extended mating dance with the Greens in the run-up to 2013; others, me among them, have a harder time picturing Merkel as seductress and see her corralling mainstream voters, reining them in from across the leftist range of the ideological spectrum. At the moment, with the liberals almost gone, there is nothing right of Merkel for her to worry about.

If she succeeds in draining the Greens of part of their voter appeal, she will then opt for the Social Democrats to build a new government in 2013. The Social Democrats have been in disarray for a while now. Still, they hold one trump card that Merkel craves, and that is their enduring strength in cities.

If Merkel can paint herself green, she cannot tattoo urban credibility on her face. Hence, the return to a so-called 'Big Coalition' is a very plausible scenario.

Yet, the social democrats themselves might prefer to bond with the Greens. The last few polls have consistently revealed a comfortable lead for red-green over any other possible coalition. Both parties together score just below 50%, with the SPD most often in the stronger position.

The SPD probably silently dreams of chancellor hood, as popularity polls reveal two party politicians, the former finance minister Peer Steinbrück and the former vice-chancellor and foreign minister Frank Walter Steinmeier, who both trump Merkel by a comfortable margin.

The question therefore becomes: How do the Greens themselves see things? They profess to no specific and thus all possible options. A collaboration with the Christian-Democrats however has been tried and tested in Hamburg. It failed.

A collaboration with the SPD has been tried and tested in the shape of the Schröder/Fisher government. In retrospect, it yielded considerable results and could be an inspiration for further developments.

Now and then, bold rumours about the Greens very own chancellor candidates ripple the political surface in Berlin. The timelessly popular Joshka Fisher is said to be one of them, although he himself denies this.

It is still a long way to 2013 and the future will certainly look very different from what we see today. The Greens, now burdened with government responsibilities in five, soon possibly six state legislatures, are bound to be faced with a number of compromising challenges.

Such is already the case in Stuttgart, with the railroad extension debate. In Nordrhein-Westfalen SPD and the Greens will have to tackle unemployment questions and the revival of coal mining in the face of new energy security challenges. It may soon be the case too, with regard to euro-policy. The Greens favour a strong and integrated social Europe, while the average German taxpayer grows increasingly weary of the costs of it all.

The compromises the Greens will have to make may have a dampening effect on their electoral success. Their voter support might tumble from the low to mid-twenties, they currently enjoy, to a more 'natural' share of twelve to fifteen percent. That of course will totally change the ballgame.

All else remaining equal, a 15% green party has only one way of getting through the church door, and that is on the arm of Merkel. Chances are, if the lady can have it, she'll no longer want it.