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The rise of the Greens

By Michael Pearce - posted Thursday, 21 July 2011


Indeed, once the tax is bedded down, and people realise that its disadvantages have been overstated, the voters tend to reward a Government that has the courage of its convictions to introduce an unpopular tax.

If the Gillard Government can hold its nerve and see through the introduction of the carbon tax, this may be the making of it. If it then turns into a long term Government, it will owe that longevity to the Greens for requiring it to adopt a carbon tax as the price of support for a minority Government. Even if it does not last but it still manages to introduce the carbon tax it will at least have left a worthwhile legacy and will likewise owe that to the Greens.

Labor's debt to the Greens – whether or not it forms a long-term government - highlights its uncomfortable and unresolved relationship with the Greens. It feels under siege from the Greens in the inner cities of Sydney of Melbourne, and its natural instinct is to fight.

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But, it must now rely on Greens support at the national level and the prospect of Labor-Greens coalitions is real at both the federal level and in some States, especially in Victoria and New South Wales. Tasmania is already governed by a Labor-Greens coalition and this could prove to be a significant laboratory for cooperation between the two parties.

Labor is still searching for a workable strategy to deal with the threat from the Greens. In Victoria many Labor traditionalists say the gloves should come off and the Greens should be resisted by all means possible.

This approach proved disastrous in the 2010 State election, which Labor lost by one seat. Labor devoted considerable resources to defending four inner city seats from challenges by the Greens, only to learn that this was unnecessary because the Liberals decided to preference Labor ahead the Greens in those seats, making them safe from the Greens challenge.

Had the resources devoted to the inner city seats been diverted to a couple of key marginal seats, like Bentleigh and Carrum, Labor probably would have held Government.

This is not being wise after the event. Had the Liberals preferenced the Greens ahead of Labor in the inner city, no doubt a couple of those seats would have gone to the Greens. But if Labor had held Bentleigh or Carrum it could, and almost certainly would, have formed a minority or coalition Government with Greens support.

Federal Labor made no such mistake: It abandoned Melbourne to defend the outer suburban seats, which it held and so held Government.

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The contrasting strategies and results of the 2010 federal and Victorian elections hold an important lesson for Labor. It has more to gain by abandoning the inner city to the Greens than by fighting them there.

Labor strategists have been unable to find a pitch for the inner city electorates to dissuade significant numbers from defecting to the Greens. Strident Labor attacks on the Greens have only been counterproductive in the inner city. That sort of politics turns off the educated electorates there, and many traditional Labor supporters have gone over to the Greens because of such attacks.

The success in holding off the Greens challenges in Victoria in 2010 did not vindicate that strategy. That success was owed to the Liberal Party's decision to preference Labor ahead of the Greens and came at the cost of Government.

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About the Author

Michael Pearce, SC, is the immediate past President of Liberty Victoria. He practises in most areas of commercial law especially trade practices, contract , company and property law, as well as equity and constitutional law.

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