Obama: all peace, no process

The scenario of an Israeli government resuming negotiations with a Fatah-Hamas government is not as fanciful as many believe. Indeed, it would not be the first time that Israeli leaders were drawn into a peace negotiation with their sworn enemies by firm and principled U.S. administration requests.

Twenty years ago, President George Bush and his wily Secretary of State James Baker seized their historical moment after their military and diplomatic triumph in the 1991 Gulf War and swept away concerns expressed by Jewish and Arab leaders (both domestic and in the Middle East) and convened the Madrid Peace conference. Madrid was the first-time in history that Israel, the Palestinians and the Arab states, were compelled to sit around a table and talk peace. The conference kicked off a decade of further talks, multiple Arab-Israeli agreements and peace treaties between Israel, Jordan and the PLO.

At the time Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir – a staunch conservative by anyone’s measure – refused to sit in the same room and negotiate with PLO officials, as the PLO and its leader Yasser Arafat were then the avowed enemies of Israel. The PLO Charter called for Israel’s destruction, they had yet to recognise Israel and the PLO had employed decades of terrorism directed at Israeli civilians to achieve their political goals. 

Deja vu?

Baker and Bush settled on a clever compromise: it would officially be a joint Jordanian-Palestinian delegation, and only local Palestinians – i.e. residing in the West Bank – were permitted as members. Yet it was understood, even at the time of the actual conference, that the delegates in the negotiations were in constant communication with Yasser Arafat and PLO officials in Tunis, and it was they who were pulling the strings behind the scenes.  

Incidentally, it was only two years later, on the eve of the signing of the first Oslo peace accord which promised Palestinians a path to self-determination, that Yasser Arafat and the PLO recognised the “right of the State of Israel to exist in peace and security” and renounced terrorism.

Of course, geo-strategic realities have been fantastically altered since the Madrid conference was convened. The Soviet Union is long gone, the Cold War is over, Iran’s nuclear program progresses, al-Qaeda made its dastardly mark on world affairs, and most recently the Arab world has been swept by a wave of tech-fuelled, civilian protests demanding their freedom from authoritarian regimes.

Much has changed, but much has stayed the same. The U.S. remains a global superpower, there is a dynamic U.S. President and Secretary of State, and another moment of historical change in the Middle East is upon us.   

Mitchell should not be replaced with yet another Mid-East Special Envoy. The formidable team of Obama and Clinton need no envoys to act on their behalf, and it is time for them to delve personally into the tricky waters of Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking, and invest themselves in the future of the Middle East. 

Obama must be willing to commit his own time, skills and political capital into sustaining negotiations. He will need to endure domestic political pressure and manage Middle Eastern leaders that are well honed at extracting the best possible deal for their own people. Obama must explain the urgent need for Middle East peace, and how an independent, secure State of Palestine is in Israel’s core national interest, and vice versa.

Obama will be ably supported by Secretary of State Clinton to bend arms, knock heads, and sweet-talk Israeli and Palestinian leaders back to the negotiation table and persevere until a deal is done. Finally, Obama will need to help Israeli and Palestinian leaders sell an eventual peace deal to their sceptical publics back home, and assemble an international coalition of countries to support its implementation. 

With a threatened unilateral Palestinian declaration of independence at the U.N. General Assembly this September on the horizon, and the unknown repercussions that may stem as a result, there is not a moment to lose. 

Twenty years ago, Madrid proved to the world and to its participants that constructive Arab-Israeli negotiations were possible. The key ingredients in Madrid’s success were the active involvement of a U.S. President with political capital to burn, and a creative and persistent Secretary of State.

It is time for Obama and Clinton to convene Madrid, version 2.0.