Australia's reckless experiment in early intervention

Before embarking on this headlong and reckless rush, the following research steps need to be accomplished:

1. Develop a proven and reliable definition of "Psychosis Risk";
2. Learn how to use it in a way that reduces current outrageously high false positive rates to levels that are tolerable.
3. Demonstrate that the interventions chosen are indeed effective in preventing psychosis.
4. Determine the likely rate of antipsychotic use and how this influences the overall risk/benefit balance sheet of early intervention.
5. Study the beneficial and harmful impacts of early diagnosis on stigma and self perception.
6. Compare the marginal utility of a dollar spent trying to prevent an alleged future disorder vs a dollar spent treating an already clearly established one.

This is a research enterprise that will take many groups around the world many decades to complete. But it is an absolutely necessary precondition before spending $400 million on what is likely to be a failure.

The Australian experiment will be flying blind on an airplane that is not at all ready to leave the ground. Doing prevention prematurely will give a good idea an unnecessary bad name.

McGorry's intentions are clearly noble, but so were Don Quixote's. The kindly knight's delusional good intentions and misguided interventions wreaked havoc and confusion at every turn.

Sad to say, Australia's well intended impulse to protect its children will paradoxically put them at greater risk.

Let's applaud McGorry's vision but not blindly follow him down an unknown path fraught with dangers.