June 2021: ten predictions for the coming decade

The composition of and voting rights within the United Nations and its organs (including the World Bank) as well as other multilateral institutions (such as the IMF – International Monetary Fund) reflect the world as it was in 1946, after the Second World War. A lot has changed since then, most notably the emergence of Asia as the fastest-growing region, both economically and militarily and the relative decline of an insular Europe and depleted USA. Within the next few years, the upper echelons of the IMF and the UN will be revamped to reflect these gargantuan historic shifts: we will see Asians and Africans running the world.

8.     A Dictatorship in Turkey

Snubbed by the EU (European Union) and the USA alike, Turkey is re-orienting itself. Once again, it is playing the role of a regional potentate, with ties to regimes of all sorts: veteran and unsavoury; emerging and fundamentalist; terrorism-prone and peace-seeking. Turkey’s military and its secular political establishment have lost their decades-old grip on power. Moderate Islam, reified by Turkey’s Prime Minister Erdogan, is slowly being transformed into an authoritarian, fundamentalist, anti-Western pale imitation of Pakistan and Iran. Its erstwhile warm relationship with Israel is frayed. Media freedoms and online access are curtailed and censored. Human rights are again breached and violated blatantly (especially where Kurds are concerned). Turkey’s role in NATO, its special relationship with the USA, and its EU accession are all in doubt.

9.     War in Pakistan

The second war between the USA and China – directly and via proxies – will be fought on Pakistani, Indian, and Afghani soil. As an increasingly-Islamized Pakistan veers away from its frenemy, the United States, and towards its new-found ally, China, America’s vital interests in Afghanistan, India, Japan, and South Korea are at stake. Skirmishes will evolve into a full-fledged conflict, with a slate of nuclear powers as adversaries: Pakistan, India, China, and the USA/NATO .

10.  Dissipated Cloud Computing

As the inherent instability, unreliability, and unsafety of cloud computing are demonstrated time and again, businesses and, later, users will shy away from it and return to the safe havens of their servers, laptops, tablets, notebooks, netbooks, and PCs. Hyped today, cloud computing and its derivatives (Chrome Operating System, for instance) is a fad and will become the exclusive reserve of giant consumers of storage such as Google and Amazon. Other predictions: Bing will triumph over Google as it gains access to Facebook’s and Skype’s vast treasure troves of user-generated information; the PC will make a comeback (of course, transformed beyond recognition); Windows Mobile (Nokia) and Android will overtake Apple’s iOS.