Palestine - bring Jordan back into the equation

Any hope of returning Jordan to the status quo it enjoyed in 1967 as occupier of the West Bank and East Jerusalem or allocating it sovereignty in any part of those areas having regard to the demographic changes over the last 43 years - remain the only two possible negotiating avenues that can now be possibly explored.

Either would involve the introduction of Jordan to replace the Palestinian Authority as Israel’s negotiating partner to determine whether either outcome can be peacefully achieved.

Jordan will not readily acquiesce to being placed in this negotiating spotlight.

However the following circumstances now exist that might help bring these negotiations about - if sufficient American and European Union pressure is brought to bear on Jordan to do so:

1.  The Hashemite regime in Jordan faces serious challenges to continuing its 90 year rule in Jordan - such as Mubarak in Egypt, Gadaffi in Libya and Assad in Syria have had to face.
2.  Jordan’s economy continues to struggle to cope with the demands of its increasingly restless population. Jordan’s woes have been compounded by repeated interruptions in the pipeline  delivering Egyptian natural gas, which has forced it to ration electricity and increase its import bill.

It is in the interest of America and the European Union to ensure the survival of a stable Hashemite regime in Jordan and the maintenance of the 1994 peace treaty signed between Israel and Jordan .

Providing guarantees to protect the monarchy and financial support to overcome Jordan’s economic woes could well prove to be the catalysts necessary to attract Jordan to take up where the Palestinian Authority has clearly failed.

It is ironic that the following statement made by Netanyahu at the United Nations in 1984 still resonates and is of particular relevance in 2011:

Clearly, in Eastern and Western Palestine, there are only two peoples, the Arabs and the Jews. Just as clearly, there are only two states in that area, Jordan and Israel. The Arab State of   Jordan, containing some three million Arabs, does not allow a single Jew to live there. It also contains 4/5 of the territory originally allocated by this body’s predecessor, the League of Nations, for the Jewish National Home. The other State, Israel, has a population of over four million, of which one sixth is Arab. It contains less than 1/5 of the territory originally allocated to the Jews under the Mandate…. It cannot be said, therefore, that the Arabs of Palestine are lacking a state of their own. The demand for a second Palestinian Arab State in Western Palestine, and a 22nd Arab State in the world, is merely the latest attempt to push Israel back into the hopelessly vulnerable armistice lines of 1949.

The attempt to create that second Palestinian Arab State in Western Palestine has clearly failed and is not going to occur through direct negotiations between Israel and any Arab interlocutor. However expanding the boundaries of Jordan in direct negotiations with Israel has reasonable prospects of success

Netanyahu would do well to draw Obama’s attention to his prophetic statement when they meet next week. Certainly had the UN acted on this statement - the sorry saga of death, injury and trauma suffered by both Jews and Arabs over the last 27 years could have been avoided.

The only hope of avoiding further conflict and bloodshed is to bring Jordan to the negotiating table. The sooner this dawns on President Obama the sooner the prospect of resolving sovereignty in the West Bank and East Jerusalem is likely to be achieved.