The echoes of Iraq in Libya

The West knows from the Iraqi experience that sanctions and no-fly zones do not always work against dictators intent on holding on to power. Iraq suffered 12 years of sanctions, and yet only the people that the West was trying to protect, suffered. Many criticise the intervention in Iraq as not having a moral or legal basis. Many even despise the US for the intervention.

The view of Arab states on how they prefer the Middle East to be is not uniform. Some states would prefer a weakened Gaddafi to stay in power rather than create more political vacuums in the region. And, those governments who have suffered anti-government protests would be nervous.

The West must get the timing right. As sanctions and no-fly zones are not enough to topple a regime, any intervention has to be well marketed. This is the reason the West was careful in the wording of the resolution and in publicly setting their overall objective.

Following on from the events in Tunisia and Egypt, there are growing opposition forces in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Syria. Protests by those seeking more personal freedom and democratic government have been violently suppressed in Yemen. The tides of change will only get stronger if Gaddafi's regime falls.

It will not only be regimes that change in this oil-rich part of the world. Strategic alliances, the regional power balance and the even the sectarian balance will be affected.

However, too many changes made too quickly and without a clear Western policy on guiding and supporting these "new" states or clear criteria for the need to intervene, may see the region in further turmoil - rather than enter a new era of prosperity and democracy.

More than ever, the US and its allies are needed to play a crucial and productive role in the Middle East.

Bashdar Pusho Ismaeel – Kurdish Globe – 27^th March 2011