It ain't over until it's over

You have four years before the next election. This seems like a long time. It isn't. And you may think the New South Wales Labor Party is ready for burial. It isn't. Like the creature in the Greek myth, cut off one head and others grow in its place. That's the nature of politics.

A final word. I've been asked how a crushing defeat of Labor will play out on the Federal scene. There will be a short burst of euphoria and triumphalism, but in the medium term it won't greatly matter. Politicians may think voters are dumb, but they're smart enough to distinguish between state and federal politics.

The next federal election is – in political terms – a long time off. Maybe Labor's coalition with the Greens and the independents will break up and an election forced. But why should this happen? The independents and Bob Brown are doing very nicely out of their arrangements with Labor, and have nowhere else to go.

And so, barring an unexpected bye-election, the Federal contest is a good way off, and will be fought on issues quite different from State issues.