Female MPs in NSW – a plateau at best

There are no major party male candidates in contention in eleven seats, so these will most certainly return female MPs. These seats are Blue Mountains, Burrinjuck, Goulburn, Heffron, Kogarah, Marrickville, Mulgoa, North Shore, Shellharbour, Vaucluse and Wollongong. The Coalition holds four and Labor seven. But of those seven held by Labor, Blue Mountains, Mulgoa and Marrickville and possibly (though unlikely) Kogarah could change party. Marrickville could go Green and the others Liberal. The Wollongong newspaper Illawarra Mercury (19-20^th March) revealed the results of a survey that suggested a male Independent could challenge the Labor MP Noreen Hay, but she has a margin of some 25%. The Independent Clover Moore seems safe in the seat of Sydney, but Dawn Fardell could lose Dubbo. It will depend on whether the anti-Labor sentiment translates into a pro-Coalition swing. So, it seems likely that women will hold these 12 seats.

In addition, female candidates should hold some safe seats against male challengers. Liberal women will hold Willoughby and South Coast, bringing the female total to 14. Labor’s female candidates should hold four seats with huge margins in Auburn, Bankstown, Canterbury, and Wallsend, bringing the total to 18. With a margin of 15.1%, Cabinet Minister Victoria Judge should hold Strathfield but could suffer because of media criticisms. One argument about women MPs has been that they behave with integrity. Unfortunately, as women have come closer to power, lapses become more likely. A by-election was necessary in Penrith after the removal of its Labor MP and Labor disendorsed the Member for Drummoyne following an adverse report on her conduct. Newspapers have repeated allegations accusing both Premier Kristina Keneally and Judge of conflicts of interest. Strathfield is a volatile seat and Judge is by no means assured of victory, although she must be favoured in a tight contest. Indeed, unfounded allegations could backfire against Judge’s political opponents. So, Labor’s five safe seats should bring the total to 19.

Other wins by female candidates are a matter for speculation. The 1996 federal election saw a huge influx of female Liberal ‘freshers’. Labor women, supporting their own party’s commitment to specific aims and quotas, tended to dismiss these Liberal female MPs as the accidental result of a landslide and predicted that they would be one-termers. In the landslide expected in NSW this time, several Coalition women could seize seats. Liberals Robyn Parker in Maitland (swing required 9.7) and Melanie Gibbons in Menai (2.7) are likely winners. Nationals Leslie Williams in Port Macquarie (4.5) and Alison Davey in Cessnock (12.4) also have good chances. Liberal Kirsty Lloyd has an outside chance in Toongabbie (14.5) against former Premier Nathan Rees.

It is a matter of history that female members of the federal Liberal ‘Class of 1996’ saved the Howard Government from defeat in 1998. As strong, hard working local members, several MPs in outer Sydney withstood the general anti-government swing. The same could happen this time with Labor women. Verity Firth could hold on in Balmain (3.7) and Jodie McKay in Newcastle (1.2). It is possible, if unlikely that new candidates Katie Smith (Gosford 4.9) and Therese Cook (Miranda 0.8) could hold against the swing expected by male challengers. Labor has only one female candidate challenging for a marginal seat. While it seems improbable, new candidate Kate Washington might defy the swing and retake Port Stephens (0.1) and Independent Dawn Fardell could retain Dubbo (0.9).

Of interest to the final party balance among female MPs are four seats with females assured of victory. In Kogarah, Cherie Burton’s margin of 17.7 should be enough against Liberal challenger Miray Hindi. In Mulgoa and Blue Mountains, new Labor candidates Prue Guillaume and Trish Doyle each have margins of 11.1 against Liberal challengers Tanya Davies and Rosa Sage respectively. In Marrickville Deputy Premier Carmel Tebbutt has a margin of 7.5 with the main challenge from the Greens’ Fiona Byrne.

Prospects for female candidates 2011 election Legislative Assembly

Seats (19) likely to return female MLAs

Seats (11) that might return female MLAs possible, most likely at top

Twenty-six female candidates were successful in 2007 and 24 were members of the Assembly in late 2010. At the 2011 election, those numbers are unlikely to increase.