Strategic implications of Iran's naval presence in the Mediterranean sea

In a hypothetical military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, Israel will first need to neutralize Iranian naval ships and submarines in the area. Israel already faces viable retaliation options by Iran which act as deterrence against any possible attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, but Iran's naval presence in the Mediterranean sea will bolster the existing deterrence and will make such an attack seem even more daunting for Israel.

By the same token, the long-term naval presence of Iran in the Mediterranean sea will also raise the costs of any future military aggression by Israel against Iranian allies in the region. As the Hezbollah-Israel war in the summer of 2006 demonstrated, Iranian options to support its allies in the face of an Israeli military aggression have been limited to diplomatic and logistical support. Any naval presence in the Mediterranean sea will make it harder for Iran to remain on the sidelines in the event of a military attack by Israel on Iran's allies in the region.

It is true that a handful of Iranian naval ships and submarines cannot exert decisive damage on Israel and thus deter it from military action when its vital interests are at stake, but they can limit Israel's room for maneuver in the region by raising the costs of its military confrontations in the future.

Having made these points, it remains to be seen what trajectory regional events take in the upcoming months.