Shifting Sands

Whilst on posting to Saudi Arabia in the mid 1980's I had to intercede on behalf of an Australian nurse sentenced to 100 lashes for being found in a car containing alcohol on New Year's Eve. She escaped the sentence but was thrown out of the country.

Ten to Fifteen per cent of the population are Shiite Muslims who have little time for the Wahabis.

All in all taking into account the Shiites, the guest workers, some of whom are mercenaries in the army, and women, the ruling male oligarchy including the royal family are sitting on a well of discontent numbering some 21.5 million people and probably more considering that many Saudi men outside the royal family and the wealthy elite are opposed to the regime.

And it is no better in the Gulf States where in Kuwait, 60% of the population of 3 million are guest workers and 85% of the population in the United Arab Emirates are guest workers. Many Yeminis work in Saudi Arabia and it is said Yemen is to Saudi Arabia as Mexico is to the US.

The nervousness is growing and showing. On 17 February, 2011, Prince Talal bin Abdul Aziz warned on the Arab service of the BBC that unless King Abdullah introduces more political participation and human rights Saudi Arabia may see protests or worse.

The ruling elites in the Gulf and Saudi Arabia believe they are above the law. Last August in London two young men from Abu Dhabi driving a Lamborghini at speed smashed into four parked cars in Lowndes Square, Knightsbridge, at 1.30am. They escaped injury and said to concerned residents as they headed off to the Sheraton Hotel, 'don't worry we'll pay'. They did, much to their surprise they received prison sentences. Young men from the Gulf fly their expensive cars into London during the summer, much to the consternation and annoyance of the residents of Knightsbridge and surrounding areas.

The US appears to have been caught short over recent developments in the Middle East and has been flat footed in response. US travel warnings for Egypt and Libya are up to date, but those for Bahrain and Saudi Arabia date back to last year.

The limitations of US influence have been exposed, the foundation of its foreign policy in the Middle East is collapsing; it sits mesmerised, transfixed, frustrated, angry and impotent. In the absence of effective diplomacy and a coherent foreign policy in the face of rapid change all that it has at its disposal is raw military power.

Let us hope that if the US deploys force it does so on behalf of people and not regimes. Few would be sad to see the end of the rule of the Saudi royal family and other despots up and down the Gulf, including in Iran.