Chess without pieces

Gillard made an embarrassing miscalculation on WikiLeaks calling the activities of Julian Assange illegal and through her credulous Attorney-General, Robert McClelland, sought his prosecution. Appointing Rudd as Foreign Minister was not her best call. Rudd's linguistic skills are not matched with analytical or managerial skills. Visiting Cairo shortly before the recent momentous events he came away none the wiser about popular feeling spilling over into protest. All he succeeded in doing was to upset the equilibrium of the Embassy by throwing his weight around. He hasn't learnt much.

Rudd oversees a dysfunctional department, not through any fault of the personnel and management of the organisation but rather through the unwillingness of governments over the past decade to hear any analysis other than the one they wanted; politicisation of the public service has done the rest.

At the request of President Obama the US undertook a review of the Middle East last August. It concluded that popular discontent with established governments was high. Did Australia have access to that review? Did it conduct its own review? What questions did Rudd ask on his recent visit to Cairo?

The Department of Defence needs a complete shake-up and restructure, as does the Department of Immigration. ASIO has the nerve to advise that security clearances are required by refugees from the very regimes they are fleeing and the government meekly accepts this advice. ASIO believes it is being very cleaver in holding the line for Immigration - delays in security clearances act as deterrence; too smart by half, delaying these clearances do not act as deterrence.

But as I write the sharks are circling. Bill Shorten is spruiking his leadership credentials around Canberra and no doubt beyond. I guess he would make a fine leader, if it wasn't all about him. A slicker version of Rudd, but he couldn't sell me a car.

No doubt, with machinations again embroiling the Labor Party, Arbib is keeping his American interlocutors informed.

Greg Combet is a reluctant starter, in fact a non starter in the quest to replace Gillard. He would need to be dragged, which is no bad thing, but he has the character, the brains and the belief to do the job.

However the Labor Party is unlikely to act until the Liberal Party makes a move. They know that the best thing going for Gillard is Abbott. With Abbott replaced by Turnbull, Gillard does not have a show. With Combet leading the ALP and Turnbull the Coalition the next election i would be a close run thing and difficult to call.

Turnbull has the capacity to capture the middle ground; ambitious and urbane he has had a life beyond politics. He is a good public speaker and is able to get his message across, which neither Abbott nor Gillard can do.

With great relief Wilson Tuckey is gone, nonetheless to ensure election the challenge facing the Liberal Party is to scrap Abbott's wilder pronouncements, which he casts as policy, and to clear some of the dead wood out of the Party.

Turnbull's ambition is tempered with imagination and an idea of where he wants the country to go, he shares that with Combet.