Floods and storms: we ain’t seen nothing yet

Warnings of increased frequency and intensity of rainfall and flooding were reiterated in a third scientific paper in 1997, and in a fourth in 2000 as well as in numerous international reviews and studies. Australia has thus been on-notice about the probability of recent events for many years and, true-to-form, did little or nothing.

As a society, it seems we prefer to have a disaster and fix it in retrospect with inquiries and taxes than to avoid a bigger one we can be fairly confident is on the way. Like generals re-fighting the last war, we are trapped in the past, repairing the last event rather than preparing for the greater one to come.

As a society, too, we are committed to increasing the scale, the damage and the suffering caused by such events - and this is the essential point which we all, especially politicians, tend to avoid.

Electricity consumption is rising by around 2 per cent a year, on the back of coal. Our coal exports continue to surge to feed the carbon monster in China. Demand for oil rises in line with increasing air travel, food miles and demand for transport. All of these things contribute to the record planetary warming that is sucking more moisture into the atmosphere to generate fiercer storms and bigger dumps of rain.

It is time we faced the unpalatable truth that the present policy of Australian governments, industry and consumers is to invite more and greater disasters - however noble and sincere our intentions or words may be. We are of course one country among many - but if every country waited for every other country to act on, say, healthcare we’d all be back in the middle ages, wouldn’t we? How many politicians do you hear saying we can’t afford modern hospitals merely because China or India lack them?

There is also the moral dimension. Currently about 1500 Australians die heat-related premature deaths every summer. By 2050, with rising population, the number is forecast to rise to between 4300-6300. Added to this we may also suffer several hundred bushfire and flood deaths annually, giving a combined climate-related deathrate three or four times as large as the national road toll. Over a decade, it may be similar to the price exacted on Australia by each of the two World Wars.