Facing up to China’s Rise

“China is about where the US was in 1910. It still has almost half the population either in poverty or just above the poverty line, and as it continues to grow it will encounter a lot of the things that the US encountered after 1910, which is the growing aspirations of the middle class, the desire for a greater say in government, more demand for human rights, trade unions, increases in wages and many of the other things that tend to occur in mature societies,” Bleich said.

However, White does not rule out the possibility of China changing its political structure to meet the kind of problems Bleich outlined “without a Tiananmen Square-style upheaval…it is perfectly possible that it could do this is a peaceful, orderly fashion that does not stop growth,” he said.

But what if the isolationists do win out in Washington and the pressure is on to withdraw to Fortress America. The chances are that this is a political fashion that could fade as the United States economy improves. Something that the US seems to have over many of its rivals - and especially China - is the ability to innovate and invent new products which the world suddenly finds it desperately needs.

American President Barak Obama believes the nation had a ‘Sputnik moment’ when China passed Japan to become the world’s second biggest economy. “Just as Americans in 1957 quickly grasped the significance of the Soviet Union’s historic launch of the world’s first artificial satellite, responding aggressively with new investments in research and developments in science, technology, engineering and education,” he said recently.

“Americans today are recognising that we are once again on the brink of a new world. The decisions we make today about how we invest in R&D, education, innovation and competitiveness will profoundly influence our nation’s vitality, global stature and national security tomorrow.”

This does not sound like a nation about to withdraw in on itself and indeed, the US has played a major role in helping to raise millions of Asians, including Chinese, out of poverty. The majority of countries in East Asia would be horrified if the US did withdraw from the region and most Australians would rather see American rather than Chinese warships cruising the international waters off our coasts.

Compromises will inevitably be made, and White’s second option of a power-sharing ‘Concert of Asia’ is probably the best chance for continuing stability and prosperity in the region.

It can only be hoped that future leaders will have the will and the vision to grasp the opportunity.