Egypt: more than Revolution 2.0

For some Westerners these activists could be thought of as the wrong sort of democrats. The right sort of democracy movement would be firmly guided by figures like Mohamed El Baradei, known and trusted in the west. Its leaders would say liberal things while an entrenched political machine buffered them from any inconvenient beliefs circulating in the rank and file.

Where now? The youth activists don't have the social base to lead a new Egypt, for all their heroism and leadership. If Mubarak goes and (a much bigger ask) the regime is fatally weakened, what next?

US leaders are toey. Republican John McCain has warned that the "longer the delay, the more likely it is you will see a radical element interject itself into the situation."

The threat of Islamist theocracy has been the main rationale advanced for supporting Mubarak in Egypt. In terms of formal membership The Muslim Brotherhood certainly towers above the other opposition forces, but as The Economist observes, Egyptian Islamists have moved away from political radicalism. It notes:

...a shift in ideological fashions, away from activist and public kinds of Islamism to quieter and more private pursuits of faith. The symbols of commitment among today’s radical youth are no longer guns and beards but pious conduct and knowledge of scripture. The religious wave has certainly not passed and may still carry a lot in its wake. But in Egypt, at least, it no longer looks like a revolutionary force.

As Noam Chomsky argues, Western leaders fear independence rather than religious extremism in Egypt.

Less noticed, but no less important, Egypt's labour movement is rising to its feet, and here especially western leaders may be dreading the lack of tried and trusted deal-makers in leadership positions.

For the moment, though, the focus is on Mubarak and Egypt’s youth movement has its hands full in pushing him out.