Climate science after ‘climate-gate’

As for Prof Michael Mann, Pennsylvania State University responded to the release of the emails and subsequent controversy by establishing an enquiry committee, which unanimously concluded (PDF 778KB) that Prof Mann:

… did not engage in, nor did he participate in, directly or indirectly, any actions that seriously deviated from accepted practices within the academic community for proposing, conducting, or reporting research, or other scholarly activities.

These review outcomes where not what the critics of climate science were expecting and they have been rejected on the basis that each of the reviews was a whitewash by mates of the accused. But is this credible?

The House of Commons committee of enquiry comprised two Liberal Democrat members (one in the chair), one Conservative and two Labour members. Only one member opposed the key paragraphs quoted above and others of a similar kind. This one member also opposed the report being sent to the House. That member was one of the Labour members of the committee.

Members of the Oxburgh review included three fellows of the Royal Society including Oxburgh himself and the seven professors comprising the review team, all from world leading universities, spanned the disciplines of physics, meteorology, statistics, mathematics and geophysics.

The Russell review was even more diverse, with Russell having a distinguished career in government and as a vice-chancellor, and the panel including senior professors of geology and physics, the Group Head of Research and Technology at BP, and an independent company director who among other roles chaired the Audit and Management Engagement Committee for an investment trust.

And as to whether the science is settled, the recent summary by the Royal Society documents what is now accepted climate science, what is near to attaining that status, and areas where significant doubt remains to be resolved by further research. Their conclusion is clear:

There is strong evidence that changes in greenhouse gas concentrations due to human activity are the dominant cause of the global warming that has taken place over the last half century. This warming trend is expected to continue as are changes in precipitation over the long term in many regions. Further and more rapid increases in sea level are likely which will have profound implications for coastal communities and ecosystems.

Likewise, the Australian Academy of Science report released earlier this year, The Science of Climate Change: Questions and Answers, began with this statement:

The Earth’s climate has changed. The global average surface temperature has increased over the last century and many other associated changes have been observed. The available evidence implies that greenhouse gas emissions from human activities are the main cause. It is expected that, if greenhouse gas emissions continue at business-as-usual rates, global temperatures will further increase significantly over the coming century and beyond.

The recent report from the National Academies of the US is even more direct:

Conclusion 1: Climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for - and in many cases is already affecting - a broad range of human and natural systems.