Hope at Cancun: the silent momentum

When I saw the real Cancun, it made me realise how much hope there still is for the planet. Under the warm sun on the Mexican coast, alongside the Caribbean Sea and home to debauched spring break party goers, a silent momentum is building.

This momentum is swelling among the civil activists gathered, but most importantly the momentum is spilling over into all the national delegations negotiating the future of our planet.

I arrived in Cancun with my expectations low, hoping at best for some relatively minor issues to be resolved. I expected cynical and divided negotiators, a hapless UN bureaucracy, and collection of defeated non-governmental organizations.

This time last year the momentum was roaring across the globe. We were at that all-or-nothing moment that was Copenhagen COP15. Throughout the year the hype and hope and been intense, with over 100 heads of states having been pressured by the public to gather in wintery conditions. They were there to forge a treaty that would strike down climate change in one grand swoop. All hopes had become pinned on it, and the world watched with nervous anticipation.

Then Hopenhagen became Brokenhagen. The Accord negotiated in secret in the dying stages of the conference was only "noted" by the UN, as opposed to "accepted". Serious flaws were also evident in the target, the process and the relationships between nations.

The outcome failed to live up to the expectations. It felt as if hope was lost and momentum was dead.

Throughout the year the dismal situation continued, with the Australian government ditching essential climate change legislation and adopting a weak stance on climate policy. A deeper blow was felt when Obama's climate legislation never even made it to Congress in the US.It's no surprise there are such low expectations around Cancún COP16.

Yet I believe Cancun will be remembered as a success. The real Cancun is not as loud as spring break parties would have you think. It is modest and shy; relatively silent on the very significant progress being made.

As I write this, I'm watching delegations scuttle around the conference centre; outside this bubble of activity it is close to midnight. So far I have witnessed an incredible push for action, and for the first time I feel as if we are approaching real success.

Cancun promises agreements on a balanced package of issues, which while being relatively minor to the major problem of cutting greenhouse emissions, will provide a solid foundation of consensus on which to build a new treaty.

The momentum surrounding these issues is incredible. Hundreds of NGO's, businesses and independent observers have flown in from around the world. Each has with it the silent momentum. There are no media-grabbing mass gatherings, spectacles or protests as there were last year. This year, it's about getting things done through targeted actions and steadfast commitment to the cause.

I am one of the hundreds of young people awake at 4am, not sampling the local tequila or hitting the hotel strip, but hunched over our laptops in a dingy hostel, designing policy, writing speeches, researching negotiations, planning actions and trying to highlight the urgency of this moment.

Before COP16 had begun, youth based NGO's from around the world were engaging with their governments, their negotiators and each other, building pressure on governments to make the most of COP16. Over 400 young people gathered in Cancún for the Conference of Youth prior to the UN negotiations, allowing a truly global climate change movement to form a unified front on the world stage at COP16.

Most importantly, this silent momentum at Cancun is reflected in the national delegations negotiating the outcomes of the conference. There is no grand rhetoric, no unreachable goal and as yet no world leaders. Only a pragmatic commitment to resolving the problems preventing a global treaty. Executive Secretary of the Conference Christiana Figueres stated that governments are within reach of launching action on adaptation, technology transfer, and forests and creating a new fund for long-term climate finance. Already significant progress has been made on issues such as financial assistance to developing nations, global adaptation and technology development cooperation.

It's not pretty, and it certainly won't make great headlines or sell papers, but having seen this quiet explosion of momentum over the last week I feel confident that it will do the job. It will lay the most solid and substantial foundations ever seen at an international level, allowing a legally binding agreement that will finally act on emissions in coming years.

It may not be what is required with such an urgent climate crisis, but it may well be the best we can get from the political realities of the international order. The silent momentum of the non-governmental organizations and the world's youth will be sure to increase its voice whenever a slowdown appears.

Don't doubt the efforts at COP16; the world cannot afford to doubt the efforts. It may not be headline news or involve soaring rhetoric, but the silent momentum driving the negotiations at Cancún are moving us all towards a safer and cleaner future. It may not excite many people, but its implications are profound. Don't doubt the real Cancun.