No-one can pinpoint with 100% accuracy what the ultimate outcome will be. Not us, and most certainly not the US Federal Reserve. But that's what makes everything so scary right now.
The Fed is playing around with the markets based on what it hopes it can achieve but without knowing whether it'll be right or wrong until it's too late. We know the Fed will end up being proven wrong.
But what we don't know for sure is how much damage it will cause before that happens.
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There's little doubt the torrent of freshly printed cash has the potential to drive stock and commodity markets much higher.
But it's doing so by increasing the risk for investors the higher these markets go.
You've got to be in it to take advantage of this inflationary madness, but you've also got to make sure you don't get suckered in to the false belief that the rally is built on fundamentals, because it's not.
It's built on nothing more than the inflationary devaluation of the US dollar and the consequent desperation of investors searching for higher returns from higher risk. And it's this excessive risk taking - engineered by the Fed - that will lead to the market's downfall.
A fuller version of this article was published on Money Morning Australia on November 5, 2010.
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About the Author
Kris Sayce is editor of Money Morning. He began his financial career in the City of London as a broker specializing in small cap stocks listed on London’s Alternative Investment Market (AIM). At one of Australia’s leading wealth management firms, Kris was a fully accredited adviser in Shares, Options and Warrants, and Foreign Exchange. Kris was instrumental in helping to establish the Australian version of the Daily Reckoning e-newsletter in 2005. In late 2006, he joined the Melbourne team of the leading CFD provider in Australia.