Abortion: Don't Blame the Voters

The view that electoral retaliation follows support of abortion reform has a tenacious hold on the imagination of pro-choice politicians like Anna Bligh. But the view is on all fours with the available evidence. The reform of abortion law (albeit in different ways) in WA, Tasmania, ACT and Victoria was followed by no discernible electoral repercussions for proponents.

This is not surprising: no matter what views Australians hold on the ethical or legal status of abortion and abortions, they do not seem to rate the issue of abortion highly in the formulation of their political allegiances or their voting preferences. There are no significant patterns of voting dependent on the candidates' views on abortion.

However, what Australian opinion polls on abortion have found is that the beliefs of parliamentary candidates for some parties differed markedly from public opinion. For example, Katharine Betts showed that while Australians across party lines support liberal access to abortion, there was a wide disparity in support for reform between Liberal and National Party candidates and voters (PDF) – with LNP candidates being significantly more conservative than voters on the question. However, this disparity has narrowed in more recent polls.

Rather than voters exacting retribution on reformers, a more accurate prediction is that many parliamentarians will continue to set aside the long-standing consensus among voters on this issue. And pro-choice MPs will continue to lay the blame on the conservatism of the electorate rather than on their own lack of will.