1000Mbps is sexy, it’s cool, but is it worth $43bn?

Minimum requirements for 1-to-1 video conferencing

Minimum requirements for 4-way video conferencing

Other requirements that home users might require (with modern compression technologies) are:

• VOIP (Internet telephone) 56kbs;
• interactive gaming < 1Mbps;
• streaming video (wide screen) < 3 Mbps;
• streaming HD video (1920 x 1080) < 9 Mbps;
• small home-based web business < 1Mbps.

The only unlimited requirement would be downloads. If one wants to download a movie nearly instantly, then this would be the only area where 100-1000Mbps would make a significant difference.

So, for most normal functions, including all home business, medical, etc the requirements are easily covered with a 10Mbps capacity, and 90 per cent of functions are covered by a standard 1.5Mbps capacity.

The final issue with bandwidth is that irrespective of the bandwidth that the user is capable of, often the limitation is on the global network, or the website being accessed. One only needs to try and access Facebook during peak times to experience snail-like speed due to the pressure on Facebook’s server.

Functions required by user, now, in the short term, and in the long term

Referring to the figure 1.1 and starting at the lower end of the demand curve, the 20 per cent who don’t own computers presently, either through aversion to technology or financial circumstances, are unlikely to demand high speed broadband either now or in the short term. However, in the long term the percentage of non-computer owners is likely to diminish.

The percentage of dial up internet users is the fastest shrinking component, and with the advent of cheap broadband, and the inconvenience of sharing a line with the phone, this does not require great genius to predict that this small percentage is likely to reach close to zero in the short term.

The existing broadband users are more difficult to differentiate between those with low use/low speed users and high use/high speed users. Estimates are that some households (i.e. those with teenage children) are the high speed/bandwidth consumers, but that the substantial majority fall below the 2Mbps and 20GB a month consumption.

As to the next decade and beyond, the IT game is changing so rapidly, that the answer to requirements from 2020 and beyond can only be that 100Mbps may well become the new minimum requirement.