It’s not whether you win or lose

I think there are two reasons for this. While Gillard is not seen as the ideal solution to the problem of Kevin, her elevation shows Labor is at least prepared to address it. Voters have “moved forward” from Howard and will give Labor another chance, but if Gillard fails her demise will be more precipitate than Kevin’s.

The other reason is that the confused Liberal campaign has run away from Abbott’s most leverageable asset - his authenticity. An example of that is the way they have tried to neutralise industrial relations by effectively outsourcing their policy to the government for at least their next term.

Responses on the question of preferred PM show that Abbott is still well regarded and has some of the best characteristics of a PM. The two themes associated with him are “trust” and “leader” - he is a known commodity. While for Gillard they are more generic - “woman” and “policies”. She gets marks for femininity, novelty and what she says she will do, he for masculinity, familiarity and a track record.

So how does Abbott get back into the game? He has to play to his strengths. He’s unlikely to win the next election, and he should say so. That would help to rehabilitate his authenticity because 87 per cent of our respondents would agree with him.

Then he has to give an alternative philosophical vision of where he thinks Australia should be heading. There’s no obvious coherence to what he’s offering at the moment. And then he’s got to dedicate himself to what the vast majority of voters are crying out for - keeping Labor honest.

Abbott got a lot of respect when he ran the Ironman Australia Triathlon not because he won, but because he finished. He’s in a similar race now.