Refugees will be an election issue

Supporters of a tougher policy concentrate on the process and whether it is lawful that people "jump the queue". They rarely argue that Australia should not accept refugees, but they do argue that we should have control over who we accept. It is an argument about what is fair, given the vast number of refugees in the world and limited domestic resources.

Opponents also talk about fairness, but their fairness is modulated by "compassion", and the immediate problem of people on our doorstep with needs. So they are focused on the outcome, not the process, and our common humanity with the new arrivals. They want to see everyone enjoying what we enjoy.

Of course there is some xenophobia and isolated concern that the refugee groups harbour terrorists and criminals, and will refuse to integrate.

There is also a subsidiary theme, and that is one of the competences of the government. When Kevin Rudd was riding high last year Labor and the Coalition were ranked almost evenly in their ability to handle this issue.

Then, when Rudd was imploding, the Coalition suddenly gained a substantial lead. The evidence suggests this was not because of anything the Coalition said, but because each additional refugee arrival became further proof of government incompetence.

Neither Julia Gillard nor Tony Abbott is likely to unilaterally raise the issue in the election contest. But that probably won't matter. This is the sailing season, and they'll both have an eye on the horizon. Unless the people smugglers are extraordinarily sensitive to Australian political conditions, it's odds-on refugees will inject themselves into the next federal election, and that's bad for Labor.