China's debt dragon

That it reached that stage raises further questions on the extent of China's real level of debt and that of the Central Bank itself.

China's risk

The traditional triggers of unemployment, wealth gap, health care, population growth, corruption, pollution, water shortages and civil unrest etc., are considered the most likely to undermine the Chinese Communist Party's hold on power. The ready use of force by the police, Peoples' Armed Police and the army however, are a proven and effective deterrent.

China's real risk appears more likely to be debt hidden in the local government, financial, pension, and stock and property sectors threatening the hundreds of millions China's savings depositors. Indications suggest that this appears likely to surface in the second half of 2010 and first half of 2011.

China's historic lack of transparency, misinformation and concealment, combined with its banks poor risk management record and reckless management of stimulus lending, raises serious concern about reliance on China and current globalisation strategies.

Has China's experiments with AMCs and stimulus lending created the dragon to undermine confidence in China's economy with the potential to unleash a response from the hundreds of millions of Chinese reliant on their savings for survival?

If China is Plan A for resource exporting countries, what is Plan B?