Keep Rudd away from foreign policy

While both would deny it, there was no great chemistry between Rudd and Obama and we could benefit from the change. It will be intriguing to see how America’s first black president gets on with Australia’s first woman Prime Minister when the two eventually meet - possibly on Gillard’s home soil if the president’s much-postponed visit Down Under finally takes place, now almost certainly after the Federal election, and assuming that Gillard and Labor are still in charge.

One topic that will not be on the agenda is Rudd’s plan for an Asia-Pacific Community. Launched with great fanfare just over two years ago, the proposal was ill-conceived, clumsily constructed and thrust on Asian leaders without warning. It spoke more of Rudd’s personal convictions than any serious attempt to get a dialogue going and actually revived the perception - never far below the surface in Asia - of the ugly Anglo Saxon trying to dictate to its neighbours.

A much easier way forward is through the Trans Pacific Partnership, whose ultimate aim is a multilateral, free trade zone across the Pacific. The TPP is already up and running, the US and Australia are members along with New Zealand, Singapore, Chile, Brunei, Peru and Vietnam - at first sight a disparate grouping but nevertheless with a combined population of 470 million and GDP of $17.7 trillion.

The Chief Executive of the US Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, Geoffrey Garrett, believes the TPP is an easy way for Obama to burnish his image as the “Pacific President”. “Supporting the TPP can signal his bona fides with respect to free trade and the fact he is interested in regional integration in the Asia-Pacific,” Garrett says.

“At the same time he will not have to test it with a vote in Congress any time soon, because it is going to take a long time before all the details are negotiated. He can also project it as a high-quality, multilateral free trading arrangement that Japan, Korea and ultimately China could join.

“That is the big vision - a way towards an Asia-Pacific Free Trade Area that doesn’t grow directly out of APEC with all the problems associated with that, including Taiwan’s participation.”

All of which will require firm and experienced hands on the tiller when Obama finally makes Australian shores. Whether the steering is done by Labor or the Coalition will be decided, possibly before winter has released its grip on Canberra.