The CSIRO and the myth of progress

Business failures, oil supply disruptions, power blackouts, shortages of raw materials or spare parts, political upheaval or extreme weather events could trigger this paradox.

Our dependence on global supply chains means that events half a world away, that we have no control over, can cause significant disruptions to our economy. This view is supported by a recent Chatham House/Lloyds report which concluded that “Business must address energy-related risks to supply chains and the increasing vulnerability of 'just-in-time' models”. If this paradox eventuates on a large enough scale, advanced technologies will become increasingly unreliable. At some point thereafter many are likely to be abandoned.

Viewed in this context, the mega-trends identified in the Our Future World report have the potential to be very dangerous. By focusing our scientific effort into fields that aim at ever increasing levels of technological complexity, not only do we risk the systemic failure of those same technologies but we also risk not having developed simpler technologies that could be maintained as we transition to the giga-trend of achieving less from less.

Having identified the problems with the current mega-trends, perhaps it is time to propose some alternative mega-trends of the future and a set of principles for focusing our scientific research. The five mega-trends are:

1. Less from less. As the production of many of the inputs to industrial civilisation declines so to will the level of economic activity.
2. Cheap labour - expensive energy. As energy becomes increasingly scarce and expensive many current tasks currently completed by machines will be provided by human or animal labour.
3. Localisation. As global supply chains falter there will be increased emphasis on local production and distribution of products, services and food.
4. Low tech. The increasing unreliability of advanced technologies combined with lowered levels of economic activity will see a move towards simpler technologies.
5. More spin less substance. Governments will increase the level of rhetoric and spin claiming that things will get better while providing less and less service to the community.

What do these trends mean for the focus of scientific research?

The author of The Long Descent, John Michael Greer proposes four qualities for a technology that are likely to be necessary in the giga-trend of achieving less from less scenario. The first property is that the technology is durable, that it will last for a long time and certainly far longer than many consumer items of today.

Second, it is independent and doesn’t rely upon other technologies to make it work. This avoids the risk of synchronous failure, a very real threat to modern societies.

Third, it must be replicable without requiring advanced industrial technology. The last property is that the technology is transparent, that is how the technology works can be determined by studying the technology itself. An approach to scientific research incorporating a move towards these principles in the development of “future” technologies may be a far wiser approach.

Busting the myth of progress is a precursor to changing industrial civilisations' current unsustainable direction. This myth will of course be busted in time. The key question is whether it will be through a voluntary collective awakening or by the hard limits imposed by the finite nature of our planet. Redefining the role and nature of technology as we transition to the giga-trend of achieving less from less should be a task that organisation’s such as the CSIRO lead, as has been demonstrated in the past (PDF 716KB), but has failed to occur in this instance with the Our Future World report.