East Timor's recalcitrant hero

While the Chinese attempted, at least once, to assist in material ways their Maoist ideology almost destroyed the East Timorese resistance movement as described here (PDF 218KB) (pages 209-219). In the hills (post 1975) some Fretilin/Falintil leaders had the bright idea that occasional Maoist purges, following Mao's destructive example, would be ideologically beneficial. The purging process involved East Timorese leaders killing each other - which ultimately benefitted the Indonesians. Gusmao, fortunately, was more down to earth and dubious about Maoism's total lack of applicability to East Timor's pre-industrial village culture (no industrial "workers" and little "capitalism" outside of plantation agriculture). By 1987 Gusmao had had enough of the communist model and its inability to effectively further East Timor's independence. He broke away from Fretilin and led his decentralised Falintil insurgent network toward a centrist stance.

Gusmao was finally captured by the Indonesian Army in 1992 and presumably made, or was given, a light sentence deal (he was not executed like most). His move to the centre perhaps saved his life as the Indonesians may have seen him as a moderating influence on the insurgency. The US may have also seen him as a useful moderate - far more acceptable to them than far left Fretilin. US political pressure may have then prevailed upon the Indonesians to spare Gusmao.

During the same period East Timor's representative at the UN in New York, future President Jose Ramos-Horta, also moved towards democratic centrism - perhaps partly to make the idea of independent East Timor palatable to the West (including the US and Australia).

In 1999 Australia lead the UN INTERFET intervention that effectively drove the Indonesians from East Timor - thus stopping a new round of Indonesian mass murders of East Timorese.

Now in 2010 there is a disturbing standoff between East Timor (especially Gusmao) and Australia over the Australian company Woodside Petroleum's commercial decision not to site a huge LPG plant in East Timor. Here is quite a moving East Timorese video about East Timor's poverty and lack of infrastructure - in 6 mins 40 seconds the LPG plant standoff is explained.

Woodside's current preferred solution is to place the plant on a huge floating platform - suppling liquefied gas directly to tankers. This is envisaged to occur in the middle of the Timor Sea right over the gas field - with no pipeline connections to East Timor or to Australia now necessary. Gusmao is pulling out all stops to make Australia feel guilty over Australia's relationship with East Timor since 1941.

In the middle of this major Australian-East Timorese disagreement the two long heralded Chinese patrol boats have now entered Dili Harbour, this month. These boats will, for the foreseeable future, be totally crewed and maintained by the Chinese Navy. Perhaps in a couple of years half the crew will be East Timorese but there will still be a significant Chinese Naval presence where the boats are now based - in Dili harbour.

These two patrol boats are small, but to the East Timorese they are important as they constitute the beginnings of a navy kindly provided by China. It remains to be seen whether these boats are the beginning of a gradual Chinese naval build-up to Australia's near north.

In April 2008 Australia's then Defence Minister Fitzgibbon expressed a view that minimised the importance of the patrol boat issue, but then that, perhaps, was before his connections came to Prime Ministerial notice. Loro Horta here (PDF 46KB) indicates how influential China has become.

This photo taken a few years ago symbolises how far history has come.

Xanana Gusmao has moved from anti-western communist to becoming President then Prime Minister of East Timor and fathered, with Kirsty, three children. The long period of physical danger Gusmao experienced has made him recalcitrant. He doesn't fight by comfortable western diplomatic rules. His country may be small but it could present a long term, big headache, if Australia does not handle the differences with greater effectiveness and sensitivity.

East Timor, to our very near north, has a growing association with a China that is arguably Maoist, certainly communist, and most importantly, a rising power with strategic aspirations in our region.

This is a worry that our Labor Government, sensitive to Chinese goals, needs to counter or at least address.