Little love for Abbott, but voters have stopped listening to Rudd

Another issue is that the selling of the budget has been too clever. It's traditional for exaggerations of tough measures to be leaked before budget day, while the popular measures are left for the night. Treasurers hope that relieved voters will support the budget because it is not as bad as feared.

The release of the government's response to the Henry inquiry beforehand takes this to another level and essentially means that the budget has been serialised with much of the good and bad news in blockbuster episode one. At the same time, the pressure on Labor to make this a "no-frills" budget means there were few giveaways in episode two and the audience is losing its interest.

Opposition to the tax on miners has been building since its announcement, to the stage where it is one of the chief complaints against the budget, with many more opposed to it than supporting it, although it features on both sides of the debate.

From comments, Keating initiatives such as dividend imputation and government privatisations have transformed Australia into a share-owning democracy where the value of our portfolio is held almost as dear as the value of our house.

Criticism of the mining tax is nuanced and doesn't just focus on the cost to the industry of taxing it and the flow-on to the rest of the economy but questions the wisdom of building long-term promises on what may be a short-term boom.

Supporters of the budget tend to focus on general impressions such as its modest aims, expenditure on health and projection of a rapid return to surplus. But they don't remember too many of the specific promises.

When asked to name what they like about the budget, apart from the mining tax, the most prominent measures cite are the simplification of tax returns and lifting of tax on savings accounts.

These are not banners to rally support in an election campaign.

The changes to the superannuation levy, personal taxes, company taxes, infrastructure investment and small business costs have all receded into the background.

When asked what they don't like about the budget, respondents cite the mining tax and lack of expenditure on areas such as greenhouse gas abatement, mental health, environment and education. They also see the budget as unrealistic.

How does this affect the government's fortunes? After all, John Howard was unpopular for significant periods in his first term. My reading is that it's different for this government. It has reached the stage where voters aren't listening any more. When that happens, what can you say that will turn things around? Not much.

The government's future, therefore, lies in the hands of its opponents. Labor has to see if it can help Abbott lose the election.