Kyrgyzstan Turmoil Puts US Base and Afghan War in Balance

The anniversary was accompanied by rising popular discontent over a steep hike in electric rates imposed in January by the recently privatized power-generating companies sold to Maxim Bakiyev and cronies at rock bottom prices. A swiftly cobbled coalition of opposition groups called for national protest on April 7. It quickly mushroomed into regime change.

The fall of Bakiyev has reopened debate over the US base. A senior Russian official revealed that Bakiyev failed to keep his promise about the withdrawal of the American base and, that in Kyrgyzstan there should be only one base – Russian. But since the interim leader Otunbayeva has mentioned a six-month limit on changing the constitution and holding fresh elections, any decision on the future of the Manas air base must wait.

The latest colorless revolution or regime change in Bishkek underlines the close intertwining of governments, both small and large. The West may have inspired the Tulip revolution, but the success of Kyrgyz democracy depends on both domestic leadership and external economics and politics. The 9/11 attacks and consequent US involvement in neighboring Afghanistan introduced new challenges for resource-poor Kyrgyzstan. The outcome of NATO operation in Afghanistan, now reaching a crucial phase, in turn depends in part on how Kyrgyzstan reacts to the US need for the Manas base in the face of Russia’s opposition.

Small countries weigh the fortunes of great powers, trying to maximize their own gain. What happens in Kyrgyzstan has repercussions in Afghanistan, South Asia and security of the western world.