Iraqi elections have not set off a democracy contagion

The elections have not done anything to reduce foreign involvement in Iraq. Iran yields considerable influence by virtue of its co-opting leading Shiite groups and clerics and deepening economic and cultural ties with its neighbours since 2003. Even if Allawi gets the premiership, he will unlikely antagonise the Iranian regime because that would be costly and destabilising. Allawi would turn to the Sunni-dominated Arab world, particularly Saudi Arabia, to counterbalance Iranian influence.

During the election campaign, Allawi was criticised for spending time in Saudi Arabia, where his warm welcome was cited as a signal that an Allawi-led government would be welcomed in the Sunni Arab world. To counterbalance Iranian influence in Iraq, Saudi Arabia has explicitly backed Allawi and encouraged Sunni Arabs to embrace him, a fact that speaks volumes about the intense rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

The vote result means that the Iranian regime will be unable to call the shots in Iraq and fill the vacuum left by the US exit. Despite their previous criticism of US interference in Iraq’s domestic affairs, Maliki and Allawi view the relationship with the US as critical to maintaining stability and peace in the short term and to deterring the country’s ambitious neighbors.

Regardless of how messy and risky is the situation in Iraq, the United Stated must honor its commitment to extract its forces from the country and allow Iraqis to put their house in order. As the US-led invasion and occupation of Iraq has shown, social engineering from the outside is dangerous and counterproductive as well.