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National Missile Defence: The Maginot Line of the 21st century

By Keir Semmens - posted Thursday, 18 December 2003


However arms experts already acknowledge that the risk of attack by ICBM is low. Few countries possess the necessary technology. Terrorists certainly do not. And an ICBM can be readily traced to its launch source, thus enabling identification and response. Even rogue nations would beware the threat of catastrophic retaliation that would surely follow a nuclear attack by an ICBM.

Any prudent foe seeking to deliver a nuclear warhead would choose a less detectable delivery mechanism. Most likely this would be via cargo container or truck across largely porous borders. In this way it may be impossible even to ascertain who was responsible. NMD does nothing to guard against this threat.

3. Do the intended benefits justify the necessary expenditure?

A fully functioning NMD shield may provide limited defence from an inbound ICBM. However, given its limited utility and dubious reliability, it seems that the necessary investment could be better diverted to alternative defence priorities.

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The Howard government has already made significant cutbacks in Australia’s Defence Forces. Now they have opted to spend money on a speculative and ill-judged adventure, without even revealing how much this may finally cost.

Australia would be better advised to invest scarce defence dollars in expanding its infantry strength, upgrading our border-defence capabilities and concentrating upon counter-terrorism and non-proliferation activities.

4. What consequences may result?

Despite American assurances that NMD is only intended to resist any ICBM threat from a "rogue" state, it would also pose a challenge to China. Present estimates suggest China possesses fewer than two dozen ICBMs capable of reaching the United States mainland. While this tally pales in comparison with the US nuclear arsenal, it represents a credible deterrent against a US attack. This is particularly sensitive given the ongoing tensions across the Taiwan Strait.

If China’s deterrent were neutralised by NMD, it would be vulnerable to nuclear blackmail in the event of a crisis. Since China will not permit this outcome, NMD might well trigger an arms race as China seeks to maintain the strategic status quo. At a minimum this would mean the development and deployment of several hundred more ICBMs. Japan and Taiwan would find this prospect most discomforting. It may lead India to respond with measures to counter China, since they are longstanding rivals. And Pakistan would not stand by while India marched ahead. In short, NMD could very well lead to a regional arms race.

Such an outcome would be strongly against Australia’s interests. Regional stability will not be improved by heightening the sense of insecurity felt by our neighbours. But it is just one of a range of unintended consequences that may result from the development of NMD.

5. How will it affect our strategic interests?

Several officials from neighbouring states have already expressed their disquiet at Australia’s mooted participation in NMD. This matter goes to the heart of whether we seek security from our region or within our region.

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Notwithstanding the importance of traditional defence doctrines, the greatest immediate threat to Australia is posed by terrorists. We cannot defeat this threat without the cooperation of our neighbours. Participating in a project that increases mistrust and insecurity within the region will not help secure this cooperation.

Nor need a decision to oppose NMD rupture Australia’s relations with the United States, our principal ally. We share deep bonds forged over decades that allow us to disagree on principal when the need warrants. Australia did not support America’s request for assistance with testing of the MX missile during the Hawke government’s tenure and this did not damage our long-term relations.

The alliance remains the bedrock of Australia’s security and must be emphasised as such. Moreover, we can reiterate our support for the many other activities that contribute to our mutual security. But while we fully affirm America’s right and responsibility to protect its citizens, we can voice our belief that their efforts would be better directed elsewhere.

6. Will it make Australia more secure?

In the limited event of an ICBM attack upon Australia or one of our allies, a functioning NMD shield would benefit Australia’s interests. But against this must be balanced the considerable downsides that NMD would impose.

National Missile Defence is the Maginot Line of the 21st Century. It provides a security façade without genuine substance. Australia’s decision to join NMD does not best serve our national interests. There are solid strategic and security arguments to oppose this plan and they should be made.

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About the Author

Keir Semmens is an investment banker and longstanding member of the Australian Labor Party.

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