Problems for SBY at home in Indonesia

While such a drawn-out process could ultimately be more destructive to the Yudhoyono Government than leaving Boediono in place, Dr Mietzner does not rule out the possibility he could be persuaded to resign.

“I think resignation is a possibility because he is a very honest man, clearly not suspected of corruption himself, who has dedicated his life to service in government. I am sure he must be very hurt going out every day and seeing banners accusing him of being a thief and so on,” Dr Mietzner said.

“So I could imagine a situation where he says ‘I never wanted to be vice-president in the first place, I was persuaded by the president, so that’s it for me’.”

Whatever the outcome Dr Mietzner believes that the bright hopes that surrounded President Yudhoyono’s re-election have all but faded, leaving the Indonesian leader casting about for an issue that could put his administration back on track.

“At the height of the Bank Century scandal he visited a children’s prison because his advisers had told him this could be a big topic he could develop - a commitment to social justice, reform of the prison system, social security and so on - but it has not really formed the platform for the trademark project he seems to be looking for,” Dr Mietzner said.

In fact the ANU academic believes there is a real danger of reforms already in place being rolled back. “There are discussions about getting rid of local elections and we have had a wide-ranging debate over about curtailing the authority of the KPK (Anti-Corruption Commission).

“There have also been drafts circulating from the Ministry of Information about curtailing freedom of information on the internet, while trade liberalisation is likely to take a back seat following a public backlash over the signing of a Free Trade Agreement between ASEAN and China.”

However, he believes that for the time being Indonesia will continue to be a reliable partner for Australia to work with as long as we do not place our hopes too high. “You can look across South-East Asia and see the crisis in Thailand and stagnation in the Philippines and you realise that Indonesia is still doing very well, with the military firmly out of the equation and the power centre definitely resting with Parliament, the civilian Government and the political parties,” he said.

“Despite some policy instability and quite a bit of infighting, I believe Yudhoyono will make sure Indonesia remains a rational, moderate and trustworthy partner both for Australia and other nations.”

While this may be true, it seems that at best the second term of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono will be taken up with domestic reform, not on the issues concerning Australia, including people smuggling or terrorism. The standing ovation he got in Canberra may just be as good as it gets.