Behind China's growing belligerence

State media is the guide to future events and the increasing nationalistic content, military capability and confrontational attitude to the west is not without purpose. State media is the primary medium to motivate nationalistic fervour, and crucial to preparing the population for future events such as political change, character assassination, and diverting attention away from growing socio economic problems.

While state media reports and political speeches present an image to the population of global respect for China's leadership and the nation's rising power and global influence, it also possible for ensuing external events to undermine the carefully crafted perceptions and expectations, making effective nationwide censorship crucial to success in maintaining the perception.

The foregoing reports and 60th anniversary events could suggest a leadership transition for 2012 and explain the increasing nationalistic rhetoric of potential leaders, and that in turn could imply a return to hard line authoritarian control on policymaking, and especially foreign policy.

China wants to continue polluting at a rate that substantially negates the benefits of emission reduction proposals of the west. The rate of China's proposed return to double-digit growth will push coal fuelled energy generation to levels that will obliterate its own carbon intensity targets.

In view of its increasing rhetoric, the CCP would lose considerable face if seen to be bowing to pressure from the west to reduce GHG emissions, and that won't happen. China's media and Beijing, proudly trumpet China's economic rise to double-digit growth and its influence on the global economy.

What if?

If that is indeed the case, then why undermine support for the technocrats who are responsible for that achievement? It is after all their ongoing expertise and achievements that can produce the wealth necessary for the CCP to achieve the goal of lifting its 800 million peasants out of poverty and continued economic growth.

On the other hand, if Beijing has been misleading both the domestic and global communities by cooking the books to hide unsustainable debt in the hope of a miracle short term global economic recovery, then China's economy could indeed be a fragile house of cards about to collapse under its debt burden, overcapacity and excess supply of commercial and housing property.

The increase in nationalistic rhetoric could in fact be preparing the population to accept the laying of blame for impending failure by the hardliners on the technocrats and a return of the old hard line regime to take over the reins and rescue the economy.

In the event of any indication of dissent, Beijing would resort to its strike hard policy with immediate and unrestrained use of military and police force with the secondary objective, to deter possible outside help. The severity of such action could push Beijing beyond the point of no return both domestically and internationally.

Those in the Zhongnanhai way have good reason for their growing paranoia.