ALP vote improves as issues turn for them

According to our What the People Want polling the ALP vote is back where it was in September last year. While it is tempting to ascribe this to the collapse in Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull’s personal approval ratings and Utegate, the real reason appears to be a surge in optimism about the economy and the rise in importance of issues that favour the ALP, which reinforces for electors the validity of the decision they made last election.

The graph below shows the movements in the three largest parties’ votes since September last year (which has a base of 100) when we started our longitudinal series. It shows a slight shift to Labor and the Greens, but a dramatic decline for the Liberals from the previous sample when the Liberal vote had skyrocketed.

This coincides with a more optimistic view of the direction in which the country is heading.

What is the reason for this more optimistic view? It appears to lie in the retreat of the global financial crisis as a concern. We used Leximancer to analyse the responses to our question “What is the most important issue facing the country?” The table below shows the change in answers to this question over time. Because this is a qualitative response the issues are not neatly delineated as phrases. Leximancer identifies them using single words which are not always obvious, but the top five in these tables are fairly obvious.

While “Economy” is still the most important concept it has dropped in importance by a third since late last year. “Change” (climate change) had been gradually reducing in importance until last month, when it was supplanted by “Jobs”, but it has now bounced back. “Jobs” has retreated dramatically and “Health” has jumped-up by 8.3 percentage points to be the third most important issue. “Debt” has increased slightly in importance and “Education” has reappeared after taking a break in May.

Of these five top issues only two - “Economy” and “Debt” - normally favour the Liberal Party, while the remainder are strong for the ALP. With the economy seen to be improving this issue ought to also be tending more in the ALP’s favour than usual. So, as the fiscal stimulus proves its worth the government vote has prospered and the opposition’s gone into decline.

It’s true that the opposition leader’s personal standing has also gone down, but our panel had already made up its mind about Turnbull in May when the Liberal Party’s standing was the best that it has been since we started our index. At the same time Rudd’s approval rating has barely changed, although his disapproval rating is a little lower. There is therefore no correlation between the “vanity” polls and the polling of the two major political parties.

However, leaders’ approval ratings do have a bearing on political outcomes, particularly if their party insists on running with their leadership credentials. So it is worth paying them some attention.

Back in September 89 per cent of people thought they knew enough about Rudd to either approve or disapprove of him. That still stands at 85 per cent. People know where they stand with him.

In September only 49 per cent of people thought they knew enough about Turnbull to do the same thing. Now it is 77 per cent. Of the additional 28 per cent who have come to a conclusion, none of them (on balance) has decided they approved of Turnbull. As well, 10 per cent of the sample has moved from approving to disapproving him. It will take an heroic effort for him to change this perception.

One of our respondents handily sums up the general feeling of the difference between Turnbull and Rudd like this:

“Kevin Rudd comes across as someone who wants the best for his country, is willing to compromise, but has the strength and leadership ability to move Australia in the right direction. Malcolm Turnbull comes across as someone who has been used to having his own way, bullying all and sundry, and whose priority is Malcolm Turnbull.”

Which means that when the Opposition accuses Rudd of bullying or a refusal to compromise, voters are likely to think “He might, but Malcolm Turnbull would be even worse”.

That’s if voters are all that interested in these issues in the first place.

If you did a content analysis of media coverage for the last month or so you would think that Utegate was the most important issue. If you do a word count of our responses you find that it comes up only 46 times. Of those, 40 (2.5 per cent of the sample) of the occurrences are used to explain whether voters approve or disapprove of Malcolm Turnbull.

Of those who do mention it, most think it shows Turnbull to be either dishonest, or impetuous, while a significant minority thought it was poor judgment because it distracted from the issues that really mattered.

Rudd’s approval rating should not be taken at face value either. It indicates grudging respect rather than wild popularity. Many respondents see him as being egotistical with an eye on the next job (which they assume is at the UN), unable to implement decisions and a bit of a nerd. Unstated in their approval of him appears to be relief that he is not John Howard (mentioned 60 times in respect of approval for Rudd).

To a large extent what we are seeing in federal politics is a consolidation of the status quo as determined 12 months out from the last federal election. The Liberal Party had been in power for 10 years and Rudd presented as a clear and clean alternative. He still does, and will probably continue to do so, until external circumstances move against him, or he overstays his welcome. It will take some time, or very bad economic news, for this situation to change.

Note: These figures are from an online sample of 1,317 Australians between the July 29 and August 2. Participants are not randomly selected, but come from our panel of respondents. The purpose of the poll is primarily qualitative, but experience since 2001 when we first started polling shows that with care, results from this sample can be interpreted to be indicative of results in the broader community.

You can join the panel by clicking on this link.