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Tasmanian ALP in for an 'annus horribilis'?

By Peter Tucker - posted Tuesday, 6 March 2007


It is only just March but the more I see of Tasmanian state politics, the more I get the feeling that there will be some change in our party leaderships by this time next year.

For a start, one of either the Labor premier, Paul Lennon, or the Liberal leader, Will Hodgman, I think will go.

Which one will depend on the opinion polls.

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From Labor’s perspective, if the polls through 2007 and into 2008 show that the 50 per cent primary support enjoyed at the last two elections is persistently stuck at around 40 per cent, then Mr Lennon’s parliamentary colleagues will start to worry.

In Tasmanian politics, majority government is difficult with 45 per cent of the primary vote, and only starts to approach certainty in the high 40s. An election is not due until 2010, but I don’t think Labor would want to go much past 2008 with a leader deemed unable to take them back to those heights.

Already local polling agency EMRS and national mob Morgan have shown Labor, and Mr Lennon personally, to be on the nose with the voting public.

Consider this annus horribilis Labor scenario for the next 12 months: continuous poor polling; sacked deputy premier Bryan Green in and out of court, providing a steady stream of shock-horror headlines; the health portfolio a constant open sore (pardon the pun); and even more bad news on the economic front.

Not hard to imagine, is it? And that is just the bad stuff we can be pretty certain about.

The Bryan Green story is yet another state Labor ministerial “fiasco” not dissimilar to those seen recently in Western Australia, Queensland and New South Wales. In this case, Mr Green is facing criminal charges over an exclusive deal he approved which allowed a company run by an ex-Labor minister to accredit builders in the state.

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And I haven’t even mentioned the pulp mill assessment “debacle”. (Is it possible to write a state Labor story - any state - without “fiasco” and “debacle” in it?)

This involves wood chip “bad boy” Gunns Ltd. wanting to build said mill on the banks of the Tamar River north of Launceston. Without going into detail, Mr Lennon has given firm hints that he may legislate to allow the mill, putting aside an independent assessment - but what do his colleagues think about that?

Labor members will have picked up on the electorate’s unease over the whole issue and there is no guarantee that the party room would agree to a pulp mill enabling act.

If it comes to Mr Lennon having to stare down his colleagues, it is fair to speculate that the premier may not get his way. Popular premiers can do what they want in cabinet, but unpopular premiers …

Mr Lennon must be praying for some better polls soon to give him leverage in the party and cabinet rooms.

On the other hand, Liberal leader Will Hodgman, one would guess, must be feeling quietly chuffed with himself at the moment, what with Labor lurching from one bad news story to another.

And the latest polls have allowed him to dare to think that voters have not only lost some faith in Labor, but have begun to attach support to his Liberal team.

His confidence must be further boosted by the EMRS poll “beauty contest” which gave Hodgman a satisfaction rating of 52 per cent, compared to only 30 per cent for Mr Lennon.

This is an important event for the Liberals: in the past they have failed to convert electoral unease with the government into votes for the opposition. Maybe, just maybe, the Tasmanian public has started to seriously consider the Liberals as a viable alternative government and Hodgman as a viable alternative premier.

But Mr Hodgman also knows, or should know, that a couple of polls a summer does not make. Labor’s electoral fortunes have been immune to bad news in the past, so the Liberals will want to see their new-found support show up over the next 12 months as a trend in the polls.

Putting it bluntly, if Will Hodgman can't make himself competitive with the mess Labor is in at the moment, then he never will.

What would worry Mr Hodgman is the immunity state Labor governments around the country appear to have to bad news. Look at Labor in NSW: roundly decried as a tired administration with a less than inspiring leader, yet the polls there point to a Labor landslide on March 24. If incumbency really is king (On Line Opinion) then Hodgman may as well rack his cue now.

No discussion of Tasmanian politics is complete without including the Greens. Tasmania’s unique Hare Clark proportional voting systems gives minor parties a real chance at elections, and currently the Greens hold four of the 25 House of Assembly seats.

Unlike the two major parties, the Greens’ leadership is not threatened by what happens in the opinion polls. Green support appears rock-solid at somewhere between 15 and 20 per cent, and there is no indication that that will change over the next 12 months.

No, a change in leadership will occur only if leader Peg Putt herself decides she has had enough and retires from state politics. She is still making all the right noises as leader, and is looking refreshed after a Christmas vacation, but it would not surprise to see her pull up stumps sometime before the next election.

I have made a case here that the leadership of all three parties in Tasmanian state politics is uncertain. For Labor and Liberal it will be decided by public opinion - the leader that tanks in the polls will be the one that goes. For the Greens, Peg Putt has the job for as long as she wants it, but how long is that?

Politics, it has been said, is a funny game and leadership is the ultimate prize. It remains to be seen who gets to laugh last.

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About the Author

Peter Tucker has worked in Tasmania as an advisor for the Liberals in opposition and in ministerial offices for both Labor and Liberal governments. He is author of the Tasmanian Politics website, and is a researcher at the University of Tasmania’s School of Government.

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