Benalla shouldn’t be a bogey for Howard or Beazley

That is not to say that bush issues are not important to some urban voters, particularly those who tended to favour One Nation. The foundation myth of the bush pioneer, the urban desire for a simpler lifestyle closer to nature and the fact that many ex-bushies now live in outer urban areas means that there is a sympathy with the bush that transcends mere self interest. But as always the issues looming largest in the minds of swinging voters will be largely economic and social.

Here both Howard and Beazley have to choose between short and long term interests. There is no doubt that the wails coming from rural and regional Australia are the distress of the older economy giving way to the new, and it is the new that will provide Australia with the upward spiral in standard of living that voters have come to demand. Any administration that puts a lid on that through short term populism will destroy its longer term appeal.

The future of both major parties in terms of personnel and finances also hinges on capturing the urban middle class from which they both now draw their leadership. Beazley is ahead here, largely because of Howard’s appearance of being a man of yesterday. This manifests itself partly in his attitudes to ethnic and indigenous issues, and also in an attitude to social issues that suggests that women ought to be in the home behind the picket fence raising the kids and waving the old man off to work in the mornings. The Liberals weakness with the urban class shows up in the generally poor calibre of candidate that they are currently able to attract, a trend which has huge ramifications for them when the time comes for the next generation of political leaders to take over.

The ethnic and indigenous issues are less of a problem for Howard as you move out through the inner cores of the cities into the fringes and the neighbouring countryside where they become a positive. Labor knows this, and that is why its Aboriginal Affairs Daryl Melham is so tortured in his syntax when he has to take a position on Aboriginal Affairs himself. In fact, if Beazley is ruthlessly interested in winning the next election he will probably broker some deal with Peter Beattie on the Queensland Native Title legislation, because failure to do so won’t read well in seats like Longman, Wide Bay, Hinkler, and Herbert. Labor is weak on these issues, but is content to ride the discontent without taking a position.

With all of these constituencies susceptible to different messages the key to the next election for both parties will be selectively placing subtly different messages with different electorates. That is the reasoning behind Country Labor. Until recently it was the key to the Coalition’s dominance of Australian politics since the war. The Coalition has not had to resort to badge engineering, because, in the past it has always had two distinct political parties, both with a genuine life of their own. If Benalla is a signal of anything it is a sign that the old established political emporia sitting on the high street and retailing everything to anyone have to move with the times - float parts of themselves off, enter into strategic alliances with more nimble players, develop new brands and store concepts and generally reposition themselves in the market place. The age of complacency has passed.