How 2004 foretold 2019

This year, Labor’s climate change focus was the equivalent of 2004’s environment issues, and, its policies on capital gains’ tax, negative gearing and dividend imputation were the equivalent of the Greens’ 2004 drug policies.

In the final fortnight of the 2004 campaign, John Howard ignored the advice of the advisors in his office, stuck with his instincts and supported jobs rather than trees. Mark Latham did not follow his instincts and went with the trees rather than jobs.

The result was a rally of timber industry contractors and workers in Launceston addressed by Mr. Howard. This rally is still remembered as the turning point of the campaign.

This year the Coalition went with the jobs. Labor went with climate change and speaking with a forked-tongue about Adani.

In northern Tasmania; in the home of Liberals for Forests, Perth; in Brisbane’s northern suburbs; in western Sydney, where, post-election, Chris Bowen acknowledged religious freedom mattered; and in Melbourne’s outer-eastern suburbs, climate change and refugee policy were not at the forefront of people’s minds.

In 2004 the lesson was that there are more votes in seats like Longman, Lindsay, Macquarie, Casey Braddon, Latrobe, Deakin and Casey than there are ‘doctors’ wives’ in inner suburban seats. 

After 2004 the inner suburban elite which dominates the decision-making bodies in both the major parties, the media and the self-appointed political experts ignored this lesson. In 2019 Labor paid the price.  The Liberals avoided this fate with the replacement of Malcolm Turnbull by Scott Morrison.

The question which remains is how long it will take one of the major parties to accept that the best prospect for sustained, political success lies in being a party committed to the regions and outer metropolitan suburbs where there are the majority of both voters and the seats which determine who forms government.