Is the North Korea-USA summit over before it begins?

In fact, an analysis of new satellite-based remote sensing technology has confirmed that the structure of the mountain under which North Korea had been conducting its nuclear tests had changed and that its shape had been flattened and that it was half a metre shorter. After the September test last year satellite images showed that there had been massive landslides on its slopes and there was speculation that the massive bomb had vaporised an enormous chamber at its base and that this, combined with similar earlier tests, had caused the mountain to “sag”.

If all of this is true – and evidence suggests that it most certainly is – then North Korea is making a virtue (an appearance of being less belligerent) from a necessity. They are past masters with this ploy.

Disarmament experts are worried about the risk of spreading radioactive dust if there are rushed efforts to close down the facility and there is also speculation that this dismantling could be purely cosmetic and allow for a quick resumption of tests in the future.

“If it’s done well, there is no risk of radiation being released. But the question is, are those tunnels being sealed in a way that they couldn’t again be used? The only risk I see is that we will take the destruction of a couple of tunnels as a physical barrier to the resumption of testing in the future,” Jon Wolfsthal of the Nuclear Crisis Group told Reuters.

Kim Jong-un has appeared offended that the dismantling of his testing facility is a result of a catastrophic collapse saying, “Some say that we are terminating facilities that are not functioning, but you will see that we have two more tunnels that are bigger than the existing ones and that they are in good condition.”

Another recent claim which, if true, would question North Korea’s professed dismantling of its nuclear testing facility is a report in a leading South Korean newspaper that the regime has maintained a secret uranium enrichment facility separate from the Punggye-ri site. The newspaper also reported that the USA was aware of the site and would demand that it to be dismantled as a critical part of any deal to denuclearise the country. 

The ever tightening noose imposed by economic sanctions around North Korea’s neck has also helped drive their new attitude.

Back in late February, President Trump announced a new round of harsh sanctions against the regime which were aimed at cutting off North Korea’s imports of oil and exports of coal.  Illicit ship-to-ship transfers of refined oil and coal had allowed North Korea to avoid a fair bit of the pain of sanctions and both China and Russia have been linked to this trade.

This move which is probably the last turn of the screw of the economic vice against North Korea just stops short of an all-out economic embargo. While US Treasury Secretary stopped short of saying the nation’s navy would forcibly board ships on the high seas, he said the USA would petition China and other countries to allow inspections of suspicious ships.

The US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo who has met Kim Jong-un twice in recent times has said the USA will agree to lift sanctions entirely if the North Koreans completely dismantle its nuclear program.

He said that while the USA would not be willing to invest taxpayer dollars in North Korea, the lifting of sanctions would pave the way for private American investment and would create economic prosperity that “will rival” South Korea.

Critically for Chairman Kim, the USA has not said that it is not seeking regime change which should provide him with some comfort at least.